2010 numbers look bleak for Senate Democrats
NPR is wringing its hands . . . with good reason. Let’s look at their list of Senate races and see how much good news is there for the Dems.
Democratic leader Harry Reid is woefully unpopular in Nevada. Six Republicans are competing for the chance to topple him the way GOP Sen. John Thune of South Dakota did to then-Democratic leader Tom Daschle in 2004.
RCP has both Republicans Lowden and Tarkanian beating Reid.
Let’s keep track. So far we are R-1, D-0.
There are three open seats vacated by Democrats.
The GOP is going after three Democratic-held seats filled with appointees after Obama chose sitting senators for his administration. Sen. Michael Bennet in Colorado [Republican Norton leads by double-digits] is seeking his first full term; Sens. Ted Kaufman of Delaware, who has Vice President Joe Biden’s old seat [Republican Mike Castle leads Beau Biden by 5, if the latter even runs - if not it's Castle's in a walk], and Roland Burris of Illinois, who has Obama’s old seat [Republican Kirk lead Giannoulias by 7], aren’t running.
That makes a total of R-4, D-0.
As for incumbent Democrats, the numbers are also pretty bleak.
Republicans also have in their sights Democratic Sens. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas [she trails all 4 Republican challengers], a state John McCain won last fall; Chris Dodd in Connecticut, hampered by a mortgage controversy [Simmons leads Dodd by 6]; Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania, the party-switching former Republican [Toomey leads Specter by 2]; and Barbara Boxer in California, a frequent GOP target [Boxer is probably safe, leading Fiorina by 10].
So that makes R-7, D-1 in flipping Democrat-held seats.
But NPR bravely says that the Dems have their own targets. Let’s see how vulnerable these GOP seats might be.
Democrats want to pick up seats left open by retiring GOP senators in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio. They also are seeking to overtake scandal-scarred Republican Sen. David Vitter of Louisiana and are eyeing GOP Sen. Richard Burr in North Carolina, where Obama won last fall.
In Florida, both Republicans Crist and Rubio lead the Democrat Meek by double-digits in the Florida Senate race.
R-8, D-1.
In Kentucky, the Republican, Trey Grayson, runs ahead of or even with the two Democrat challengers.
Call that a toss-up. R-8, D-1, Toss-up-1
Missouri is a dead heat between Blunt (R) and Carnahan (D).
R-8, D-1, Toss-up-2
New Hampshire shows Republican Ayotte with a 7 point lead.
R-9, D-1, Toss-up-2
In Ohio, the polls show a toss-up.
R-9, D-1, Toss-up-3
Republican David Vitter lead Melancon by 11 in Louisiana, and Burr leads Marshall by double-digits in North Carolina.
R-11, D-1, Toss-up-3
The Senate has 58 Democrats, 40 Republicans, and 2 Independents who caucus most of the time with the Dems.
If the Dems lose the seven seats and the GOP holds all of theirs, the Senate will be 51 Dems, 47 Republicans, and the 2 independents. That will not only make it extremely difficult for Obama to ram through any earth-shattering legislation as he will be nowhere near filibuster-proof, he may have difficulty even getting a bare majority to pass anything.
Charlie Cook says that if you think 2010 looks bleak for the Democrats, wait until you see 2012 and 2014.
With Democrats having just short of twice the number of exposed seats as Republicans up in 2012 and 2014 — 43 vs. 22 — it is important for Democrats to hold the line and, if possible, expand on their majority in 2010. When their big classes elected in 2006 and 2008 come around in the next two elections, they might be hanging on for dear life. Conversely for Republicans, if they chip away a few seats this time, it increases their odds of retaking their majority.
Looks like Tuesday’s election may have been the start of a new era of Hope and Change, Republican-style.
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[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Bill_Dupray and Bill_Dupray, Bill Dupray. Bill Dupray said: #tcot 2010 numbers look bleak for Senate Democrats: NPR is wringing its hands . . . with good reason. Let’s look http://url4.eu/iTJD [...]
Forgive me Bill but are we going to get an ongoing monthly drumbeat of your predictions of a Republican avalanche a year away? I can see four months out even, but a year out means nothing. If we’re going to be poll-crazed, let me repeat what I said last time. RealClearPolitics.com notes a generic poll of 46.8 support for Democrats and 41.5 for Republicans. That’s a poll of polls, not cherry-picked snapshots. The poll averages also have Obama with support of 51.8 and disapproval of 43.7. The latest Fox poll has the differential at 9 points. The latest Gallup poll — released this week — has the differential at 13 points. Then there’s the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll last month that had approval of the Republican Party at 25 percent compared to 42 percent for Democrats. Of course, none of those polls mean much either. But I’d sure like to know what doom and gloom you’re citing. My guess: Rasmussen, which is always heavily weighted toward Republican candidates.
Well Jerry, the thing is that all those generic ballot questions were the same now as they were last Tuesday and we saw what happened.
I reiterate my point to your reiterated point that people can vote against Democrats to stop what they don’t like. They don’t have to think the GOP is the second-coming but they can be sure that electing Republicans will throw sand in the gears. That, in my view, is exactly what happened last week.
As for covering polls, as you have noticed, I track the horserace numbers and reelection prospects (along with other issues). It interests me and a lot of folks who read my stuff. If it doesn’t interest you, there is plenty of stuff from other folks you can read. I’ll give you a standing objection on the amount of time until the next election for all future posts. That is always the case. But going forward we will have primary challenges on both sides, votes have electoral consequences and polls affect politicians’ behavior.
I would note that for one who chooses to highlight polls like the generic ballot, you haven’t explained how we got the results in Virginia and especially New Jersey, if Republicans are loathed to such a degree.
In response to another comment. See in context »I kind of have to agree with Jerry.
If the unemployment numbers remain bad, I think your estimates of GOP success are actually conservative. However, if the unemployment numbers improve, the entire picture changes.
So, how in the world can anyone put forward a credible prediction when we are quite a long way from knowing if unemployment will improve or not?
Economists across the board have acknowledged for years that unemployment is a lagging indicator and is slow to turn around. Most economists, including those in the White House, project unemployment to remain high well into next year.
So while nobody has a crystal ball, the current evidence is at least pessimistic that we will have a significant turnaround.
In response to another comment. See in context »Rasmussen puts a generic Congressional race at 42R-38D, statistically a dead heat. Unchanged from last week. A fairly predictable tally given that we’re less than a year into Obama’s effort to mop up after the Republican orgy of irresponsible government. Obama inherited the mess–people’s memories are short.
But, Bill, rather than talking about politics like it’s the home team vs. the visitors, could you explain what it is you think Republicans will do better than Democrats?
Prosperity? No, that was Clinton.
Peace? No, Clinton succeeded in the Balkans and got out in a short time with few casualties. Bush got us into two, count ‘em two, wars that are our two longest in history.
Balanced budget? No, Bush set a record at running up the deficit. Clinton ran a massive surplus. The only thing worse than a tax-and-spend Democrat is a borrow-and-spend Republican.
Liberty? Bush tortured people, for godssake, created political prisoners, unprecedented (except for Lincoln) erosion of civil rights.
Illegal immigration? It was Bush’s policy to wink at it, with nearly zero prosecutions. If Republican McCain has gotten in, 12-20 million illegal immigrants would be on a quick path to citizenship.
Bill, let’s not pretend our nation’s many problems will be easily solved by either party. The Reagan Revolution supplanted citizenship with personal religion. It will be a long way back. You could do your part by trying to delve into the values that Americans need to bring to bear to get us on track. After reading about a dozen of your columns I have no idea what your conservative vision for America is about.