Poll: Christie up by 4 in New Jersey

New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie

With one week to go, a new poll shows Republican Chris Christie has a four point lead over Gov. Jon Corzine in New Jersey.

Chris Christie now leads Jon Corzine 42-38 in the race to be New Jersey’s next Governor, a slight increase from our poll two weeks that showed his advantage at 40-39.

But, as I have been saying, here is why I think Christie will win.

There are several indications within the numbers that Christie is in a better position than Corzine one week out from the election. 95% of his supporters say they will definitely vote for him, compared to 79% of Corzine’s. Daggett’s support continues to be pretty malleable, with only 57% of his voters saying they are strongly committed to him. 42% of Christie’s voters are very excited about voting this fall to 29% of Corzine’s who express that sentiment. The comparative excitement levels could have implications for which candidate is better able to get his supporters out.

This is a broken glass election for Republicans. People cannot wait to get out and do some tangible, consequential thing to stop the Democrat juggernaut that is destroying the country before our very eyes. Those numbers showing huge disparities between the motivation of the two parties will be the difference that puts Christie over the top.