Comments on: Swine flu: nothing new

By: Turi McNamee

Turi McNamee — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 22:33:35 +0000

Whoa, mind your denominators. In your calculation of the “death rate” from “norm flu”, you use the entire U.S. population as your denominator. In the same calculation for swine flu, it appears you’re using the number of suspected illnesses in Mexico due to the swine flu as your denominator. In fairness, it’s nearly impossible to get an accurate denominator for viral illnesses because it’s very hard to get a good count of those that are infected. But if we’re going to use the population of the countries in our denominators, and assuming that 169 deaths in Mexico are actually due to swine flu, then at present swine flu has claimed the lives of 169/110,000,000, or approximately one death for every 650,888 people in Mexico. Estimated influenza-related deaths claim 36,000/303,000,000, or one death for every 8,417 people in the United States. Yearly.

By: markcon

markcon — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 20:43:52 +0000

yea nothing to worry about-169 out of 1600-10% death rate-wow
norm flu-35000 out of 300mill–.001%?
no one dies in usa cuz we catch/treat early- if we do not close borders-flu will progress farther-and with the “no concern”"nothing new” policy-people will not get treated till to late– why mark levin points to your article – i have no idea- but to me your being misleading and harmful — if your story true than no need for your story-

By: Anne Field

Anne Field — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 20:49:01 +0000

The thing that worries me about this flu is that people are coming down with it all over the world. It’s not just a group of people at an army base. Also, the virus is a different form of the one that caused the Spanish flu. And the Spanish flu came in two episodes. The first was in the spring and was mild, then the second, in the winter, was the killer.

I am a worrywart.

By: Mark Rozzo

Mark Rozzo — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 16:01:20 +0000

I agree. So far it sounds more like a nuisance than a crisis. Let’s hope it stays that way.

By: Turi McNamee

Turi McNamee — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 14:49:13 +0000

Again, it’s difficult to know where this is going, but as of right now I think the threat to the vast majority of us is a bit overblown.

By: Turi McNamee

Turi McNamee — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 14:40:06 +0000

For one thing, I think we’d see a lot more U.S. citizens sporting respiratory masks during the winter months.

By: Laura Nathan-Garner

Laura Nathan-Garner — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 14:18:11 +0000

I’m happy you wrote about this Turi. I’ve been thinking about this a lot the last few days, wondering how much the media’s focus on swine flu has exacerbated our perception of the risks and probabilities.

By: Rick Ungar

Rick Ungar — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 13:53:07 +0000

Thanks for this post, Turi.I wonder how people would react to the flu were the media to make as dramatic a fuss about the thousands who die each year of flu in the US.

By: jamesohearn

jamesohearn — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 07:22:29 +0000

76% of swine exhibitors at a 1988 county fair had antibodies in their bloodstream indicating a prior swine flu infection

Almost a century ago we got ourselves the Spanish Flu (Bird Flu), and now we get the Mexican sequel (Swine Flu).

It’s a real case for probability. How many times have we been infected by one bird flu or another? Yet once in a blue moon an outlier appears, and rewrites the rules.

By: Ken Layne

Ken Layne — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 06:48:21 +0000

I hope you’re right.

Meanwhile, millions of North Americans have to decide whether it’s safe to take their kids to daycare or school.

Millions of travelers need to decide if it’s safe to take that work trip or not.

The mortality rate in Mexico City is awful.