As I hinted in a semi-final post at True/Slant, this forum has found a new home, under a new name and with a new mission, at Forbes.

The assignment has changed, appropriate to the developing realities of the politics and economics of carbon. I’ll be pursuing green technology, its pioneers and their projects.

Please join me at  The Ingenuity of the Commons.

I hope that many of you who participated in this experiment at True/Slant will bring your curiosity, your vitality, and your expertise to the  dynamic, developing forum at Forbes. You’ll find many other True/Slant veterans there.

See what happens when digital innovation infuses legacy media. More than see: be the change.

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By John F. Wasik (Reuters)

As discussed in THE CONTRARIAN TAKE’s September Monetary Watch, as scripted by Bernanke at Jackson Hole, the FOMC, citing deteriorating economic conditions and subdued price inflation, put one of their three QE tools into action.  The FOMC modified its communiqué,  guaranteeing whatever amount of money necessary to stimulate economic growth should economic and/or financial market conditions continue to deteriorate. And for all those who might be concerned about the impact that flood of money will have on prices, the FOMC says not to worry.  True to form, it made crystal clear that price inflation is simply nowhere in sight.  In fact, it is patently too low.  And given all the resource slack in the economy, the Federal Reserve should be able to print all the money it wants.

Here’s the FOMC statement, bold italics are THE CONTRARIAN TAKE:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts are at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract, but at a reduced rate in recent months. The Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be modest in the near term.

Measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to remain subdued for some time before rising to levels the Committee considers consistent with its mandate.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate.

In the opinion of the THE CONTRARIAN TAKE, Bernanke and the FOMC have played their hand.  If  economic conditions worsen, its checkmate for the Bernanke led FOMC – they have to act.  As discussed in September’s Monetary Watch, the CONTRARIAN TAKE fully expects economic conditions to worsen, perhaps quite soon. And, as Bernanke told us at Jackson Hole, that means another round of asset monetization and/or a cut in the interest rate that the Federal Reserve pays on excess reserves.  And that means the money supply, on THE CONTRARIAN TAKE’s TMS2 metric growing at an already robust 1o.7% rate, is about to get a steroid injection courtesy of the Federal Reserve.

Before ending this brief missive, a word on Ben Bernanke, the economist.  If ever there was a deflation hawk, this man is it.  This is an economist that is absolutely convinced that it was the Federal Reserve and its tight monetary policy before and after the 1929 stock market crash that gave us the Great Depression, that the correct policy response by the Federal Reserve post the stock market crash was to print money and to continue printing money until economic recovery was assured.  As discussed in September’s Monetary Watch, Austrians know the opposite to be true – that it is easy money policies that create artificial booms, that sooner or later those booms require busts, and that fighting busts with more easy money policies only adds insult to injury and creates even bigger busts down the line.

But be that as it may, it is why a Bernanke led Federal Reserve virtually guarantees more monetary inflation.  Bernanke, in his mind, is not about to repeat the supposed mistakes of his predecessors at the Federal Reserve.  Indeed, having been scared to death by the credit implosion of 2008-2009, Bernanke can be expected to move and move fast, with a printing press under each arm when the economy takes another negative turn.

By the looks of it, that move may be only a few bad economic reports away.

Based on the monetary insights of the Austrian school of economics, THE CONTRARIAN TAKE offers up the latest monthly money supply metrics for the U.S., Eurozone and Japan currency blocks.

To see the entire monthly series offering – the latest money supply data for all three currency blocks, with full historical data and chart work, as well as supporting definitions, sources, notes and references – click here on Austrian Money Supply.

For a quick link to money supply definitions, sources, notes and references, click here on Austrian Money Supply Definitions, Sources, Notes and References.

For the logic behind the formulation of Austrian money supply, read Money Supply Metrics, the Austrian Take.

Where We Are

The money supply aggregates based on the Austrian definition of the money supply (TMS) surged in August, with broad TMS2, THE CONTRARIAN TAKE’s preferred money supply metric, up an annualized 9.5%.  The more important year over year growth rate on TMS2 was once again sporting a double digit rate, posting a rate of 10.7% in August, up from July’s 10.3% rate.  This makes the 20th consecutive month that TMS2 has posted double digit year over year growth, a cumulative increase of 19% over those 20 months.  To put those figures into perspective, the run-up to the now infamous housing bubble turn credit implosion turn Great Recession saw a string of 36 months of double digit growth for a cumulative increase of 48%.  So yes, today’s inflationary largesse may be only 40% of that which brought on the Great Recession, but this one’s still in process.

As has been the case throughout 2010, M2, the mainstream’s favorite monetary aggregate, continues to show anemic growth, in July posting a year over year growth of just 2.7%.  As readers of this column are aware, in the opinion of THE CONTRARIAN TAKE, M2 is a grossly misleading measure of the money supply, meaning the gap between the true and the perceived rate of monetary inflation is a hefty 8 percentage points.

Combine this anemic rate of monetary inflation as measured by M2 with the widespread aghast over historically low “core” rates of price inflation as measured by mainstream price level aggregates such as CPI,  PPI and PCE and, contrary to the facts, you can see why deflationary concerns are currently all the rage.

To an Austrian though, inflation is the increase in the supply of money.  One of its consequences, though not nearly the most important, is the lagged impact an increase in the supply of money has on the general level of goods and services prices.  Indeed, far more important are the distortions and dislocations such monetary largesse wrecks on the economy and financial markets – in Austrian terms, the boom turn inevitable bust – the latest one being the housing bubble turn credit implosion turn Great Recession.

So, to the FOMC and mainstream economists and investors alike, deflation remains right around the corner.  To an Austrian, inflation is alive and well.

A Look at TMS2 Internals

In THE CONTRARIAN TAKE’s August Monetary Watch, we had a look at the source of today’s monetary inflation, making the case that it’s the Federal Reserve via the issuance of base money, namely currency plus bank reserves (the bulk of which springs directly from the Federal Reserve’s power to monetize assets by writing checks on itself), that has provided the majority of the monetary largesse over the past 2 years.  Private banks, historically responsible for the lion’s share of inflation via the issuance of uncovered money substitutes (which springs from the ability of those banks to pyramid deposits on top of base money when making loans or purchasing assets), have largely stood aside.

Well, recent trends suggest that while private banks may not yet be ready to reassert their more dominant role in the monetary inflation process, they are certainly beginning to make a contribution.  Uncovered money substitutes increased an annualized 13.4% in August and are now up 8.6% annualized over the last three months and 8.3% over the last twelve.  There relative size in TMS2 is shown below:

Note the recent trend, with uncovered money substitutes rising from a low of 68% of TMS2 in February to August’s 71%.

To repeat, this is not to say that private banks are about to turn on the monetary spigots and let it rip.  Indeed, while bank loan and investment aggregates have seen some life of late, recent trends in the credit aggregates suggest that the growth in uncovered money substitutes is more the result of depositors liquidating time deposits and other term bank deposits in favor of instantly redeemable demand deposits, other checkable deposits and savings accounts.  In Austrian speak, bank creditors are liquidating credit claims, raising cash, then depositing and holding that cash in money substitute form with those same banks.

That said, if in fact these currently risk averse private banks, that sit on top of $1 trillion plus in reserves, are ready to multiply those reserves into credit and deposits, that plus another round of quantitative easing could create one heck of an inflation party, possibly to the tune of trillions of dollars.  Certainly no guarantee, but something clearly worth watching, especially if a deflation wary Federal Reserve is prepared to give the banks a bit of a “push.”  Say, by reducing the rate it pays those banks on their excess reserves?  As discussed below, not mere speculation, but by the Federal Reserve’s own admission something that could very well be at hand.

What’s Next

In a word, QE II.

Let’s begin with Chairman Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole on August 27^th:

… the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed somewhat in recent months, in part because of slower-than-expected growth in consumer spending, as well as continued weakness in residential and nonresidential construction. Despite this recent slowing, however, it is reasonable to expect some pickup in growth in 2011 and in subsequent years… And as the expansion strengthens, firms should become more willing to hire. Inflation should remain subdued for some time, with low risks of either a significant increase or decrease from current levels.

Although what I have just described is, I believe, the most plausible outcome, macroeconomic projections are inherently uncertain, and the economy remains vulnerable to unexpected developments. The Federal Reserve is already supporting the economic recovery by maintaining an extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy, using multiple tools. Should further action prove necessary, policy options are available to provide additional stimulus…

Indeed, as Chairman Bernanke continually reminds us, the Federal Reserve is compelled to provide that stimulus, for it is not only charged with providing stable prices but with promoting economic growth and full employment.  And as luck would have it, it appears, at least in Bernanke’s mind, that the current setup for that said stimulus couldn’t be better:

First, the FOMC will strongly resist deviations from price stability in the downward direction. Falling into deflation is not a significant risk for the United States at this time, but that is true in part because the public understands that the Federal Reserve will be vigilant and proactive in addressing significant further disinflation. It is worthwhile to note that, if deflation risks were to increase, the benefit-cost tradeoffs of some of our policy tools could become significantly more favorable.

Second, regardless of the risks of deflation, the FOMC will do all that it can to ensure continuation of the economic recovery. Consistent with our mandate, the Federal Reserve is committed to promoting growth in employment and reducing resource slack more generally. Because a further significant weakening in the economic outlook would likely be associated with further disinflation, in the current environment there is little or no potential conflict between the goals of supporting growth and employment and of maintaining price stability.

In other words, if the economy continues to weaken, Bernanke will be a man on a mission.  With price inflation expected to be of no concern, its Katy bar the door – the Federal Reserve will be free to roll out whatever tools necessary to pump the money supply and save the economy.

So, what are those tools?  Back to Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech:

Notwithstanding the fact that the policy rate is near its zero lower bound, the Federal Reserve retains a number of tools and strategies for providing additional stimulus. I will focus here on three that have been part of recent staff analyses and discussion at FOMC meetings: (1) conducting additional purchases of longer-term securities, (2) modifying the Committee’s communication, and (3) reducing the interest paid on excess reserves.

The first tool – conducting additional purchases of longer-term securities means another round of asset monetization, another round of base money and therefore a guaranteed dollar for dollar expansion in the money supply.

The second tool – modifying the Committee’s communication is simply, when all is said it done, the FOMC telling the market it plans on implementing the first tool – asset monetization – whenever and for however long it deems appropriate.

The third and final tool - reducing the interest paid on excess reserves, that’s the mother load, and “liquidity trap” concerns notwithstanding, perhaps all that is needed to push private banks into liquidating their $1 trillion plus reserve stash and pyramiding up the money supply through a multiple expansion of loans and investments.  You see, if private banks, the same banks that have been hoarding reserves in fear of their solvency (at 25 bps, 15bps over one-month Treasuries and about the same as one-year Treasuries, thank you very much), choose not to impair their liquidity position by making risky loans or purchasing risky assets, or if private borrowers, those same borrowers many of whom are currently up to their necks in debt, choose not to borrow, there’s always that swelling supply of “super safe” U.S. Treasury and agency securities to fill the bill.  For the U.S. government is currently more than willing to be both the borrower and spender of first and last resort.  And what better way to push banks in that direction than to pay little to nothing on excess reserves.

So there’s the QE II playbook.  The only questions remaining are – if and when.

Well, in the opinion of THE CONTRARIAN TAKE, there is no if.  It’s simply a matter of when.  Here’s why…

To an Austrian, easy money and managed interest rates are the source of, not the solution to the things Chairman Bernanke fears most – a weak economy, high rate of unemployment and yes, even deflation.  Such monetary interventions in the economy always and everywhere create artificial booms, bubbles in popular parlance, with their inevitable consequence always and everywhere being busts – credit crises, recessions and depressions.  You see, by artificially lowering interest rates and creating money and credit out of thin air, a central bank, aided and embedded by its too big too fail private bank partners, create economic and financial distortions – malinvestments, which eventually must be liquidated.  And once the central bank ceases its easy money policies, by halting the further issuance of money and money substitutes, or even slowing its rate of increase, the boom soon comes to an end and the bust ensues.  Sooner or later, free market forces prevail.  Sooner or later, the central bank induced boom REQUIRES a bust.

So then, what has Chairman Bernanke given us, so far?  Double digit money supply growth and zero interest rates, right.  He’s given us a boom (an anemic one at that) that at some point MUST give us a bust.  Combine this certainty with the repeal of the Bush tax cuts, the likely crippling impact of Obamacare and Fin Reg, and what seems a never ending parade of intrusive government programs as far as the eye can see, all against a still debt-laden private sector, and it’s easy to see why the economy is in a heap of trouble.

And in time, and by extension, it’s equally easy to see the near certain implementation of Bernanke’s QE II tool set.

Now, while a 10.7% year over year rate of growth in TMS2 is highly inflationary, it is down from the high of 16.5% posted back in November of 2009.  That fact plus the economically debilitating effects of the pending tax increases, as well as the plethora of forthcoming government interventions into the economy, suggest that our current anemic boom could very well be close to turning bust.  And with that, it should go without saying that with Ben Bernanke at the helm of the Federal Reserve, another round of Federal Reserve engineered inflation could be right around the corner.

Based on the monetary insights of the Austrian school of economics, THE CONTRARIAN TAKE offers up the latest monthly money supply metrics for the U.S., Eurozone and Japan currency blocks.

To see the entire monthly series offering – the latest money supply data for all three currency blocks, with full historical data and chart work, as well as supporting definitions, sources, notes and references – click here on Austrian Money Supply.

For a quick link to money supply definitions, sources, notes and references, click here on Austrian Money Supply Definitions, Sources, Notes and References.

For the logic behind the formulation of Austrian money supply, read Money Supply Metrics, the Austrian Take.

Where We Are

The money supply aggregates based on the Austrian definition of the money supply (TMS) slipped in July, with broad TMS2, THE CONTRARIAN TAKE’s preferred money supply metric, down an annualized 2.6%.  However, the more important year over year growth rate on TMS2 was a robust 10.3% in July, down just slightly from June’s 10.6% rate, making this the 19th consecutive month that TMS2 has posted double digit year over year growth.  The last time TMS2 saw this kind of string was during the run-up to the now infamous housing boom-bust, a string that saw 36 consecutive months of double digit growth.  True, not housing bubble worthy, at least not yet, but still a lot of inflation.

As was the case in June, one would not know it by looking at M2.  This mainstream money supply aggregate, the one so closely watched by the deflation “hawks” at the FOMC, but in the opinion of the THE CONTRARIAN TAKE a grossly misleading measure of the money supply, is showing a year over year growth rate of a mere 2%.

To an Austrian, inflation is alive and well.  To the FOMC, mainstream economists and investors alike, deflation is lurking right around the corner.

A Look at TMS2 Internals

Before discussing the prospects for inflation going forward, a look at the TMS2 internals is instructive.

To begin, inflation springs from two basic sources:

The Federal Reserve, via the issuance of currency and covered money substitutes, the combined total popularly termed base money, the bulk of which springs directly from the Federal Reserve’s power to monetize assets by writing checks on itself.

Private banks, via the issuance of uncovered money substitutes, which springs from the ability of those banks to pyramid deposits on top of base money (read create money out of thin air), when making loans or purchasing assets.

With that as background, a look at the chart below quickly reveals who has done the heavy lifting when it comes to inflation; i.e., who’s responsible for that string of double digit growth rates.  Hands down, it’s been the Federal Reserve, as private banking institutions have been generally unwilling to pyramid money substitutes on top of that mountain of base money.

So, with the bulk of the heavy lifting currently in the hands of the Federal Reserve, it should come as no surprise that with the cessation of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programs in March, and resultant leveling off of Federal Reserve Credit, money supply growth as measured by TMS2, although still robust, has eased, down from a year over year growth rate of 16.5% in November 2009 to July’s 10.3%.  And to repeat, in the eyes of the FOMC, with their focus on M2, a money supply rate of growth wallowing at a mere 2%.

All that could be changing soon, as it looks like the deflation hawks at the FOMC are about to step up and put a charge into the monetary aggregates.

What’s Next

Let’s begin with the August 10th FOMC press release, bold type THE CONTRARIAN TAKE’s:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract. Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated.

Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters and, with substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities.  The Committee will continue to roll over the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities as they mature.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.

First, the obvious.  While it is true that TMS2 has been decelerating, the fact is TMS2 is still running at double digit growth rates. Simply said, there is a lot of inflation around, supported by a still huge Federal Reserve balance sheet. Yet, citing little signs of inflation, likely supported by that 2% M2 growth rate, it is clear that the FOMC has no idea inflation is this robust.

Second, and as a consequence, the FOMC has decided to not only continue to maintain exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period, but to exit its exit strategy, as it will now keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities.

Third, fully aware of the banks unwillingness to extend credit (again read create money), the FOMC ends its press release by assuring the market that when it comes to money it is prepared to do the heavy lifting once more, not only by ending its exit strategy, but employing whatever other policy tools it deems useful to insure the economy gets all the inflation it needs.

What are those policy tools?

As St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, a supposed hawk and voting FOMC member, laid it out recently – Q.E. II, meaning more asset monetization, before as he says the U.S. slips into a Japanese style deflation.

A position Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke supports?  You bet.

Perhaps some short-term weakness still in TMS2, but don’t count on it for too long.  A few more disappointing economic reports, perhaps two or three more ugly employment reports, or maybe another credit event, and THE CONTRARIAN TAKE is thinking another round of Federal Reserve engineered inflation is right around the corner.

This time likely starting  from an already robust rate.

Based on the monetary insights of the Austrian school of economics, THE CONTRARIAN TAKE offers up the latest monthly money supply metrics for the U.S., Eurozone and Japan currency blocks.

To see the entire monthly series offering – the latest money supply data for all three currency blocks, with full historical data and chart work, as well as supporting definitions, sources, notes and references – click here on Austrian Money Supply.

For a quick link to money supply definitions, sources, notes and references, click here on Austrian Money Supply Definitions, Sources, Notes and References.

For the logic behind the formulation of Austrian money supply, read Money Supply Metrics, the Austrian Take.

The Austrian take on where we are and what’s next…

Where We Are

The money supply aggregates based on the Austrian definition of the money supply (TMS) surged in June, up 15.6% annualized on narrow TMS1 and 8.4% annualized on the broader TMS2.   Not too shabby.  And although TMS1 is only showing a 2.4% rate of growth year on year, the more important TMS2 metric, the metric THE CONTRARIAN TAKE views as the best overall measure of the money supply in the U.S., is growing at a very robust 10.6 % rate.

In other words, inflation is alive and well.

One would not know it by looking at M2, would they?  This mainstream money supply aggregate, the one so closely watched by the Federal Reserve, mainstream economists and investors alike, but in the opinion of the THE CONTRARIAN TAKE a grossly misleading measure of the money supply, is showing a year over year growth rate of a mere 1.9%.

Having said this, the growth in bothTMS1 and TMS2 has been decelerating of late, reflecting a Federal Reserve balance sheet that has clearly plateaued, particularly since March when the Federal Reserve ended its mortgage asset purchase program.

So then-  yes we have double digit TMS2, but where to from here.

What’s Next

First, lets start with the obvious.  While it is true that the Austrian money supply aggregates have been decelerating, the fact is the all important TMS2 measure is still running at double digit growth rates, and at growth rates still above the median of the last 10 years.  Simply said, there is a lot of inflation around, supported by a still huge Federal Reserve balance sheet.

What’s more, and more importantly, the prospects for even more inflation seem to be growing by the minute.  Indeed, given the Federal Reserve’s preoccupation with the relatively subdued nature of the popular price indices, the persistently high unemployment rate and the continued weakness in housing juxtaposed against the anemic growth in that faulty M2 metric, one could make a strong case that the next big move in TMS will be up.

The reason?

A FOMC worried silly about what all these metrics suggest; namely, brewing deflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to begin expanding its balance sheet in earnest once more.

Witness St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, a supposed hawk and voting FOMC member, calling for Q.E. II, before as he says the U.S. slips into a Japanese style deflation.

A position Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke supports, you ask?  You bet.  One only has to read Bernanke’s account of the Japanese experience and what the Bank of Japan should have done about it to be assured that Bernanke is on side with Bullard – lock, stock and barrel.  Here it is in Bernanke’s own words.

Another round of Q.E. and another surge in TMS from its already high level, the CONTRARIAN TAKE surmises, may soon become fact.  You see, deflation hawk extraordinaire Chairman Bernanke and his new accomplice St. Louis President James Bullard will not for long be the only deflation-fearing, inflation-bent members of the FOMC.  Three new Obama-picked, and similarly inflation-bent Federal Reserve Board nominees, all fretting about those very same metrics, are about to be become permanent members of the FOMC – Dr. Janet L. Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Dr. Peter Diamond, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Sarah Bloom Raskin, commissioner of financial regulation for the state of Maryland.

Perhaps a bit more short-term weakness in TMS to come, but don’t count on it for too long.  At TMS2 10.6% and counting, another round of Federal Reserve engineered inflation is likely to put a charge into the monetary aggregates.

Based on the monetary insights of the Austrian school of economics, THE CONTRARIAN TAKE offers up the latest monthly money supply metrics for the U.S., Eurozone and Japan currency blocks.

To see the entire monthly series offering – the latest money supply data for all three currency blocks, with full historical data and chart work, as well as supporting definitions, sources, notes and references – click here on Austrian Money Supply.

For a quick link to money supply definitions, sources, notes and references, click here on Austrian Money Supply Definitions, Sources, Notes and References.

For the logic behind the formulation of Austrian money supply, read Money Supply Metrics, the Austrian Take.

To see True/Slant vanish into the ether of the Internet is a shame. And I would be fooling myself if I said that I won’t miss the thriving and intelligent online destination it had become. The people that I met here — both contributors and commentors — reminded me, on a regular basis, that people are surprising and insightful. These are details I often overlook given my rather cynical worldview. But sadly, all things end, especially in publishing.

For those interested in keeping up with me, please visit my website over at Annals of Americus. I welcome your comments and continued discussion. Annals has been up and running since January, and is filled with a catalog of writings — from personal essays and daily notes, to commentary and reporting. The site is updated daily. Last week I launched an email newsletter through the site (view it here). Please feel free to sign up if you’d like to receive updates. Also, you can follow me on Twitter or add me as a friend on Facebook. And starting this week, I begin my tenure at Thought Catalog. So please stay tuned.

Thanks to Coates Bateman, Michael Roston, Andrea Spiegel, Kashmir Hill, and Chloe Angyal for all of their help this past year. I joined True/Slant in May of 2009 (brought on by Kash), and the experience has been, by far, one of the most positive I’ve had as a writer. Best wishes to all.

Emily. Image via Wikipedia

My old man taught me to say “so long” whenever we parted because he contended “goodbye” should be reserved for permanent occasions, like the one Emily Dickinson refers to here:

Good-by to the life I used to live,

And the world I used to know;

And kiss the hills for me, just once;

Now I am ready to go!

Goodbye seems especially ill suited for this occasion: while True/Slant writers and readers will scatter to diverse corners of cyberspace, that universe is nothing if not a network, and we will never be more than keystrokes apart.

It’s up to us to keep it going.

Nonetheless there is a passing to note here, an achievement to acknowledge, many thanks to be given.

My colleagues have written more ably and eloquently than I can of the community that thrived here, the conversations started, the friendships forged (I won’t name names, for fear of leaving one out–you know who you are).

I’ll focus on one particular accomplishment that still surprises me, happily, every time I log in.

When True/Slant came along the world needed (in addition to love) an economically viable way for readers and journalists to find one another and converse in civility.

In the end Forbes would testify to True/Slant’s economic viability, but right from the beginning True/Slant attained civility. For the most part, people here disagreed, as the saying goes, with all due respect. And without, as my colleague Caitlin Kelly said, trolls and flames.

In a comment on his own farewell post, my colleague Michael Humphrey says, “Perhaps civility will be the great legacy of T/S.”

But I believe True/Slant surpassed civility and attained a unique style of conversation better described as “collegiality.”

The difference is that we don’t just get along–that’s civility–but we trust one another. We have mutual respect and confidence in our ability and our intent.

That came to be the case not just among those who occupy True/Slant’s Mountain Lair, not just among the site’s 300 contributors, but most remarkably, among the million-plus readers who visited us each month and those who chose to return and comment.

This was a place where we knew one another to be in pursuit of the good, no matter how we might differ on the best way to get there. That’s why trolls and flames found neither purchase nor harbor here.

And this is no small achievement on my beat, which is harassed everywhere else by half-cocked skeptics. Skeptics brought their doubts to True/Slant, sure, but found they had to back them up. They had to be fully-cocked.

True/Slant’s community spanned the world, but was so coherent in its collegiality, it got so you could spot a newbie by his inappropriate bluster. It’s not hard to imagine a hypothetical True/Slanter, either commenter or contributor, who stumbles into town all roughed up by the wild ways of the world wide web, spewing sarcasm and snark and superiority, and finds that here it gets him nowhere.

He leaves in a cloud of frustration. But something draws him back, almost against his will, some scarcely definable allure in content and platform, and gradually he learns, as we all did, to disagree with all due respect.

Thank you colleagues, commenters, readers for the collegial conversation we have enjoyed. Let’s take it everywhere.

How was it achieved?

Collegiality took root in the technologies developed by Andrea Spiegel and Steve McNally and Roger Theriault, blossomed in the professionals selected by Coates Bateman and Lewis DVorkin, flourished under the hands-off leadership and hands-on assistance provided by all those people, plus editorial Jedi Master Michael Roston and our sherpas, Kashmir Hill and Katie Drummond.

Thank you, denizens of the Lair, for making this collegial conversation possible.

As many other writers before me have noted, here we were free to write. In freedom we turned to one another for examples, and we found some of the very best. They did what Emily Dickinson had long ago advised:

“Tell all the truth but tell it slant—”

So long, for now.

Get me rewrite! Image via Wikipedia

Away I go, 900+ posts later…

Whatever will I do with all this newfound empty time?

I started blogging here July 1, 2009, quite literally shaking with fear. Who on earth would want to listen? But, bless y’all, you did.

I found 5,000 visitors by November and 10,000 every month after that; May was my best, with more than 15,000. I never attained the Olympian heights of Taibbi et al, but people showed up.

Mystery: Who are you, anyway?

For someone whose entire career, since college, has been writing for print, not knowing your audience — always tidily demographically profiled and sliced up by the ad department (like, women 18-34) — is unnerving. Really.

So I’m proud of the audience I’ve found, because 50 percent of my followers are male, 50 percent female. I’ve been told this is highly unusual for a blogger and I’m delighted.

(I was hired to blog about women, but, typical Gemini, I flitted like a drunken butterfly from one topic to another.)

I’ve enjoyed getting to know some T/S members and hearing your distinctive voices; luckily, here, it’s remained sane and thoughtful. I’ve valued your insights, wisdom and occasional shared outrage.

I treasure the international, multi-generational friendships True/Slant has brought into my life. Some I’ve already met face to face: Fran Johns, Colin Horgan, Todd Essig, Claudia Deutsch, Nancy Miller, while I look forward to meeting many others who have reached out, including Bart Brouwers, Paul Smalera, Matthew Newton, Devon Pendleton, Dawn Reiss, Fruszina Eordogh and Nick Obourn.

Scott Bowen offered advice and support throughout the writing of my book and Jerry Lanson invited me to Boston to speak to his journalism students. Fellow T/Ser Osha Gray Davidson last week chose my blog here as a “must-follow”. I will miss them all!

Ours is so often a struggling, cut-throat business, so to find a new, talented, generous posse is rare and great and so I am sad that this party is ending.

Here, I “met”, and read the work of talented writers in Bhutan, Saudia Arabia, India, Afghanistan, Rome, Tel Aviv, Moscow, Seattle, Phoenix, Lille. I found this plenitude of perspectives astonishing. Imagine my surprised delight when even PJ Tobia, another stranger to me — in Afghanistan — sent me a story idea. Such attentiveness tells me what a great crew we were.

My first life-changing year was when I won an eight-month fellowship in Paris with 28 journos, ages 25 to 35, from 19 countries. It was the happiest year of my professional life and I remain friends, decades later, with some of them.

In its many similarities to that experience, True/Slant comes in as the second-best.

The dirty secret — as the old-news veterans know — is that very few real-time newsrooms are ever as fun, funny or collegial as this one was. There are way too many Big Egos, too much gossip, an editor who hates you, a thwarted promotion. Here, we enjoyed a level playing field and cool, supportive colleagues. Bliss.

A thank-you to Coates Bateman and Michael Roston, to Lewis, Andrea and Steve — and for allowing the unusual, editorially undisturbed fermentation that produced that unique and special True/Slant fizz.

A special merci beaucoup! to Katie Drummond, a fellow Canadian jock in NY, for recruiting me.

Next?

I’m revising my second book “Malled: My Unintentional Career in Retail” (Portfolio, spring 2011) and pitching my usual clients like The New York Times. I’m thrilled to be a speaker at a major retail conference in September, where I’ll be addressing executives from some of industry’s key players. I’ll be doing it on crutches (the lousy hip) but figure it will win me a shred or two of sympathy.

Vegas on crutches….sounds like a blog post to me!

You can find Broadside here starting next week and I hope you’ll keep reading, and spreading the word if you like what you find.

As a a fulltime freelancer, I’m always looking for new, profitable and interesting gigs. Feel free to drop me a line through my website, (or find me on Facebook,) where you’ll find my email address and current work/activities.

“One never reaches home, but wherever friendly paths intersect the whole world looks like home for a time.”

— Herman Hesse

And in addition to audio, we’re now doing two live video shows every Thursday night at 7 p.m. ET on the CBS Digital Radio ChatAboutIt.com network!

You can also subscribe to the show on iTunes or the Stitcher mobile app for iPhone, Palm Pre, Android and Blackberry.

So fare thee well and thanks for the memories, T/S!

Mr. Media Radio Links:

Mr. Media Home

iTunes

Stitcher

CBS Digital Radio/Chat About It

BlogTalkRadio

Image by AFP/Getty Images via @daylife

I didn’t have a chance to write about this yesterday, but didn’t the GOP just become the goose that laid the golden egg for Democrats? Apparently doubling down on outright obstructionism seems to have become the sole Republican strategy. And yesterday it seemed to play directly into the Democrats’ strategic plan, at least if my political calculus of the other day is correct.

Senate Republicans blocked progress on small-business legislation Thursday morning, handing Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) his second legislative defeat of the week.

A vote to cut off debate on a substitute amendment offered by Senate Small Business Committee Chairman Mary Landrieu (D-La.) and Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) failed by a vote of 58 to 42.

Blocking any movement on the DISCLOSE Act can’t be spun as being obstructionist on the jobs front, but I can’t conversely see how Democrats won’t have a field day trouncing Republicans over blocking this bill. That is particularly true when you take into consideration this hot-off-the-presses Gallup poll that shows Americans are, “three times as confident” in small businesses vs. big businesses.

With Republican’s on record as playing primarily a dampening role in financial/Wall Street reform and Sen. Joe Barton’s infamous apology to BP still relatively fresh in peoples’ memories (and trust that that will come up repeatedly when campaigning for the midterms kicks in), this just seems like a dumb move.

Ostensibly Republicans are trying to hand Harry Reid and the Democrats as many legislative losses as possible to make them look ineffective. But if Democrats’ calculus is that they’ve passed the major reforms of which they’re going to be able prior to November and from here on in they campaign on what accomplishments they’ve achieved (and health care reform keeps heading in the right direction), while highlighting Republicans’ unwillingness to deal with the issues facing the nation, then this block-block-block strategy seems destined only to help Reid and the Democrats.

One wonders if Greg Sargent is still as skeptical about this potential strategy as he was yesterday.

Thanks to all for reading and commenting. To follow my work post-T/S, the best thing to do is to follow me on Twitter. There’s also my own website/blog. My blogging will show up there and also at the Huffington Post, the Guardian and other venues.

‘The Pierced Boy,’ click to enlarge. (Photo: San Jose Mercury News)

With all of True/Slant saying farewell, it feels lonely posting anything at all today. But before I sign off, there’s one last thing I’d like to share, a photograph I stumbled across several months back while paging through one of my old journalism textbooks. Looking at the image triggers flashbacks to my Journo 101 class in the basement of the University of Pittsburgh’s Cathedral of Learning, where during one of our exercises our professor showed us shocking images and asked us to decide what was newsworthy and what was sensational. We were shown countless photographs that day. But only one remains seared into my memory, this shot from the San Jose Mercury News. Here’s what the caption read:

Some editors who ran this photograph thought the image taught a lesson in a way words could not: This is what can happen when a youth tries to climb a six-foot fence with spikes on top. Twenty-six percent of the San Jose (Calif.) Mercury News journalists said they would publish the photo, and 23 percent of their readers agreed. (The boy survived the piercing.)

This image of The Pierced Boy mesmerized me when I first saw it — just as the Faces of Death videos once did as a teenager. The photo is raw and unfiltered in its honesty. And if you’ve ever severely injured yourself, it probably conjures that moment of panic you experienced just as you realized what was happening. But what purpose does it serve the public in publishing it? I wondered this when seeing the image again for the first time in over 10 years, and asked a couple editors from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette what they thought.

“I would probably not publish this photo,” said Andy Starnes, photo editor at the paper. “I don’t really think there is much to be learned from it and find that reason somewhat self-serving. I think most people would be disturbed by the image and while not believing in censorship per se, I find little to be gained from running it.”

When I then corresponded with John Allison, an associate editor at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, we talked more about ethics in photojournalism.

“My hunch is that the ethics for photojournalism have not changed much from 10 years ago in terms of the publishing of images that are shocking or possibly distasteful,” Allison told me by email. “At least for the sober, mainstream press — and I think that our impulse is to remain or even become more ‘decent’ — rather than try to compete with TMZ or Web sites with wild images, we are the solid, sensible oasis.”

Allison’s final words there, the notion that stalwart local newspapers often remain the “the solid, sensible oasis” says something about the business of news in general. There are still readers, hundreds of thousands I assume, who still view their local newspaper (whether in print or electronic format) as a valuable community resource. With cynicism so pervasive among today’s media analysis, I think it’s easy to forget that people do in fact rely on the service we all provide.

So, before I go, I wonder what your take is on The Pierced Boy: Would you publish this photograph?

Image by Lincolnian (Brian) via Flickr

Retirement village? Assisted living? Co-housing? Age-restricted or aging-in-place communities? Inter-generational cooperative? This space has explored many of the growing varieties of housing choices for boomers and elders when the time comes to downsize, rightsize, clear out or economize. Here’s a new one that’s making the news: think global.

Even with (and sometimes because of) today’s grim economy, increasing numbers of Americans are choosing senior housing overseas. Some are returning to former homes in countries with lower costs or better health care, some are finding bargain housing in inexpensive areas where they have friends or a support community.

But many are just making housing in another country life’s last great adventure.

According to Boomers Abroad, an ambitious online community/social network, the number of Americans and Canadians living abroad, already about 7 million, is expected to double and then some within the next 10 years — and you’re invited to join them. The site links to the top five locales listed in the just-released September/October issue of  AARP The Magazine the best of what Mexico, France, Panama, Portugal and Italy have to offer—”castles, palm trees, rain forests, grilled lobster—in their unique and unparalleled retirement experiences. ”

Sentimental old fool, yes. Also — technophobic. Have to sit down and figure out how to migrate Broadside somewhere else; one T/Ser says “easy” another said, not. Don’t have time today, maybe late tonight. Definitely tomorrow because the T/S curtain goes down and who knows what happens after that?

Sort of like moving baby sea turtles.

All these damn goodbyes are killing me.

Off to the city for distraction.

We got to work (collecting Steve and Michael on the way) and on April 8, 2009 we launched our alpha site.

Twelve hours later we were called boring by Business Insider’s Dan Frommer.

Former longtime AOL (TWX) news exec Lewis Dvorkin has been working on a secret new project for about a year. It launched today — True/Slant, yet another news aggregator/blog farm — and it looks like a flop.

via Ex-AOL News Exec Launches A Boring HuffPo

A year passed and then Forbes announced it would be acquiring True/Slant.

Twenty days after that announcement Paul Carr took to TechCrunch declaring “RIP Forbes.”

I like the odds.

I feel incredibly proud and grateful to have shared the past 761 days with all of you, our T/S contributors and my True/Slant comrades.   In his post today Michael used the word joy, and he’s right.  Thank you all for that.

There’s a quote we often used from Jock Whitney, publisher of the New York Herald Tribune, and another I recently stumbled upon from Malcolm Forbes.

“News is more than what happens.”

“Presence is more than just being there.”

What is news presence in a multidimensional digital age?  That’s one of the things I’m thinking about.

The True/Slant story isn’t one with a discrete ending.  It is a step, with many more on the way.

On to the next one – at Forbes.   Hoping to see you there, present and accounted for…

yrs -
andrea

Some True/Slant writers will become contributors at Forbes. Others will not. Most all will do other things online.

If you’d like an easy guide to what your favorite T/S contributor will be doing next, ‘The Goodbye Channel’ is the place to go.