Narrative Fiction

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Isn’t it amazing how when the economy’s in the tank, presidents and their top advisers suddenly “lose touch with the public” and “lose the ability to communicate” and “forget how to lead”? It’s almost as if a bad economy were politician kryptonite, rendering their communication superpowers ineffective.

As if, really, political approval were driven almost entirely by economic forces and the press’s meta-narratives about “connecting” and “losing touch” were complete … bunk.

Neuroworld has gone on and on about this before, but I’ll let Brendan Nyhan take over here, as he takes apart a relatively silly George Packer piece in the New Yorker explaining Obama’s sudden failure to communicate:

[P]residents “connect” when they’re popular, and they’re popular when the economy is strong.

The underlying analytical claim of Packer’s piece is that Obama is in trouble because he has “struggled to convey to his countrymen that he understands their suffering, and knows what to do about it.” Packer suggests the President needs to convey “a strong worldview” like Ronald Reagan, who supposedly succeeded despite the recession of 1981-1982 and political compromises with Democrats because he conveyed such a worldview: “Reagan could recover from battlefield setbacks because he was fighting a larger war.”

In reality, Reagan “could recover” because the economy recovered. His supposedly clearer worldview didn’t seem to change media coverage or his approval ratings in 1981-1982 when the economy was at its worst. There’s no reason to think that speeches conveying a clearer worldview would have a significant effect on Obama’s standing. …

In short, this entire genre of political coverage is useless. If/when the economy picks up, Obama’s speeches will start “connecting” and everyone will marvel at how effective the White House political team has become.

The unemployment rate in 2012 is pretty much the only thing — barring war or unforeseen major scandal — that will determine whether President Obama is reelected. But look for lots of other explanations along the way. As for the Democrats in 2010 — they’re going to lose some serious seats, barring an economic miracle.

• Neuroworld looked at why it’s the economy, jackasses, here.

• Neuroworld looked at what determines trust in government (cough, the economy, cough) here.

• Neuroworld looked at why politicians are morons, here.

• Neuroworld looked at why global warming attitudes shift with the weather here.