Court Decisions HELP Gay Marriage

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Since we’ve been going gay here at Neuroworld for the last couple days, how about one more before the weekend, shall we?

A perennial strategic question for the pro-gay-marriage side has always been whether major court decisions legalizing gay marriage help bring public opinion around or whether they cause a backlash. Sure, getting the decision is nice. But if it’s turning the public against gay marriage… that could be a problem.

Writing over at PollingReport.com, Patrick J. Egan and Nathaniel Persily offer an answer (in two parts, illustrated by graphs):

1) The Supreme Court decision in Lawrence v. Texas (not a gay marriage case, but gay-related) plus the Massachusetts Supreme Court decision creating gay marriage in that state (and setting off a national debate) caused a blip in national public opinion on gay marriage, though it didn’t change the upward trajectory.

2) The state supreme court rulings in states such as Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Vermont increased support in those states.

In California, Connecticut, and Iowa, it’s too early to get a good sense (the decisions, that is, were too recent — there hasn’t been enough polling). California is bound to be an odd case, with Proposition 8. In Connecticut, I can’t help but notice how there’s a big increase before the state supreme court decision — which corresponds roughly to the period when the Nutmeg State passed civil unions through its legislature.

It may not be conclusive — and it doesn’t address whether this kind of change is better sought through the legislature — but it’s an interesting data point.