Healthcare reform soap opera kicks into overdrive

Now it’s getting interesting.

Accordingly the Senate Republicans, they have been told by the Senate Parliamentarian’s Office that reconciliation can only be used to alter a law – not a bill that has yet to become law.

If what the Senate GOP says is true, (there has been no such ruling delivered in writing as of yet) this would require the House to pass the Senate bill, as is, and be signed into law by the president before it can be returned to the Senate for the new items required by the House to be passed using reconciliation to amend the law.

Simple enough? Not even close.

For starters, there remains very serious questions as to whether or not the Senate bill can pass in the House.

MSNBC has just reported, on “The Ed Show” that the House leadership has concluded that they cannot change the abortion language in the Senate bill, which means that the Stupak gang – or some part thereof – can be expected to vote against the Senate bill.

The question is, will the Stupak 12 hold to their plan to vote against the Senate bill knowing that the milder, Senate language will prevail? If they do, the legislation will go down to defeat in the House and the game is over.

Meanwhile, the Senate GOP has come up with a new strategy to attempt to force a loss in the House. They are now seeking to persuade House Democrats that they are taking a giant and dangerous leap of faith if they pass the Senate bill in reliance upon the Senate Democrats promise to get the House changes through via reconciliation – particularly on the abortion language. Based on the report of the House leadership, they may very well be right.

Says Senator John Thune (R-S.D.) –

If (House members) are being told by anybody in their leadership that they’re going to fix this in reconciliation in the House, it is a pig in a poke. There is no way that this (abortion funding) can be modified or adjusted through reconciliation.
Via CNS News

The future of health care now appears to be squarely in the hands of the anti-abortion members of the House – and that is where the battle is being waged on all sides.

Picking up on another storyline, there is now a final effort underway to take one last shot at a public option. To date, 40 senators have publicly expressed their willingness to support a public health insurance option to be passed via reconciliation. An analysis done by Ryan Grim over at Huffington Post argues that there is a realistic chance that another 10 to 12 Senators could possibly be convinced to sign on. If the Dems. can nail down 10 more Senate Democrats, the Vice –President could cast the deciding vote to create a public health insurance option.

But there is little chance of it happening without the support of President Obama – support that has simply not been forthcoming.

Will the Senate Parliamentarian deliver a written opinion requiring that Obama sign a health care reform bill into law before reconciliation can be used to satisfy the House demands?

Will the House be able to offer sufficient goodies (translation – bribes) to enough members of the Stupak 12 to turn their ‘no’ votes into ‘yes’ votes and pass the Senate bill in its current form?

Will Obama get behind the public option, assuming the House manages to pass the Senate bill?

Will the Senate GOP convince frightened House Democrats  that they are going to be sorely disappointed if they buy into the argument that reconciliation will solve their problems?

Does political drama get any better than this?

Of course, there are many of the 30 million uninsured in this country who probably don’t have TV sets, prohibiting them from at least enjoying the entertainment  value in this sorry exercise as they see their chance for accessible and affordable health care go down the drain.

On the other hand, the millions who have lost their jobs – and their health care coverage provided by those jobs – have lots of time to enjoy soap operas…so I guess there is that.