Senate Blue Dogs play out their health care strategy

This morning, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) informed the nation that he would vote with the Republicans to block cloture on any health care bill that contains a public option.

While the liberal blogosphere has erupted over this latest betrayal by Lieberman, they really shouldn’t be so surprised. Lieberman’s move is the logical next step in a Blue Dog strategy that began taking shape weeks ago.

It begins with Senator Tom Carper (D-Del.), a key Blue Dog on the Senate Finance Committee, introducing his ‘opt in’ proposal as a solution to the public option question. The ‘opt in’ scenario would allow the states to individually decide if they want to add a state sponsored public insurance program into their health insurance exchange mix with federal money available to help get it going. In essence, it’s the co-op program included in the final Baucus bill, only the program would be state run rather than operated by a board of directors made up of participants in the program.

Almost immediately, Sens. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) and Kent Conrad, also key Blue Dogs, voiced support for the Carper plan.

While the Baucus bunch did not include the idea in the bill that passed the committee, the idea may never have been intended to go away. And if it was, I suspect the concept roared back to life in the Blue Dog caucus after Chuck Schumer inverted the idea into an ‘opt-out’ option that would create a federal program that the states could take or leave. Suddenly, the Senate progressives thought they had found an approach they could say was a compromise while still being something that Democrats of all persuasions might be willing to buy into.

But this is about much more than ‘opt-ins’ and ‘opt-outs.’ This is about who is going to control the agenda in the Senate and how the conservatives who stand for re-election next year can avoid committing political suicide with their conservative constituency. While the Senate liberals can threaten all they want, it only takes one Blue Dog vote to allow the entire debate to descend into the chaos of filibuster. And it’s not like the conservatives don’t know it.

You can’t really blame the Blues. The opt-in is the perfect political solution for Democratic moderates and conservatives who very much would like to punt on the whole public option thing. They don’t want to look like they’re blocking an idea that is gaining traction and approval throughout the country – but they also don’t want to face their conservative constituents having voted for something the folks back home believe to be little more than another federal entitlement program. By going with the Carper plan, the conservative Democrats in the Senate can kick the can down to the states and put the political hot potato into the hands of governors and state legislatures.

Not only does this strategy get the Blue Dogs off the hook, it gives their insurance company supporters a whole bunch of extra bites at the apple as they deploy their armies of lobbyists to state capitals in what should now be called The Lobbyist Full Employment & Retirement Act of 2009. And, after all, isn’t that precisely what the insurance companies pay our senators to do?

When Harry Reid stepped to the microphone yesterday and announced that he would include the ‘opt out’ version of the public option, he triggered the next move in the Blue Dog strategy – and it took less than 24 hours to play out.

One can easily envision the meeting of the Blue Dog caucus that likely took place weeks ago where the conservative Democrats debated who would be the one to toss the grenade. I can envision Evan Bayh – the man with that massive conflict of interest where his personal fortune stands to grow substantially if a public option is defeated – rising to say, “It sure as hell can’t be me. I know…let Joey do it! He’s not even a real Democrat!”

And that’s the thing. Joe Lieberman isn’t a Democrat. Having been defeated in his own party’s state primary, Lieberman’s seat in the senate is beholden to Connecticut moderates and conservatives. And while Lieberman isn’t really one of them, the senate Democrats are much too terrified to toss him out of their caucus and give up the potential of having that 60th vote. Face it – Joe Lieberman is a man who can have it both ways and that makes him the perfect guy to toss that grenade while the least likely to suffer any consequences.

Don’t believe it? Listen to what Majority Leader Reid had to say about Lieberman’s betrayal-

I have the greatest confidence in Joe Lieberman’s ability as a legislator. And he will work with us when this gets on the floor, and I’m sure he’ll have some interesting things to do in the way of an amendment. But Joe Lieberman is the least of Harry Reid’s problems.

Via Salon

Barring a strong public outcry – and some leadership from the White House which will not likely be forthcoming – we will end up with either the public ‘opt-in’ option or something less. Joe Lieberman will continue to hold his spot in the Democratic caucus as he will continue to chair his committees and sign big checks for foreign wars while denying proper health care to the people here at home. The lobbyists will continue to rack in the big bucks and the insurance companies will score victories in enough states to insure that no state can join with others to build enough critical mass in their negotiating power to do the health insurers much harm.

As for Harry Reid, don’t worry about him. If the ‘opt out’ somehow survives, he will be a hero to liberals and progressives everywhere. If it fails, nobody can say he didn’t try his best.

What a country.