Afghan Runoff Recap

For Afghan Desk readers who, unlike me, have not been following every twist and turn of this week’s election developments (i.e. people with lives, spouses, hobbies) I put together this little recap of what-all has gone on in the always baffling exciting world of Afghan presidential politics.

Just by reading the following paragraphs you will be up-to-speed on the latest from Kabul, and the life of whatever party you’ll be attending this weekend. You’re welcome.

For two months after the Aug. 20 presidential vote, there was basically no word about who would be the next Afghan president or if a runoff would be necessary, but all that changed on Monday.

It began when the UN-backed body investigating Afghan election fraud announced that nearly one-in-four votes from the Aug. 20 election were fraudulent and more than 1 million ballots would be tossed out. This finding would then be sent to the Afghan Independent Elections Commission, which by law had to call for a runoff because Karzai no longer had the numbers to win outright. But some believed that Karzai–who appointed the commission–would find a way to subvert the process, have the IEC declare him the winner and allow us all to get on with our lives.

The US started a furious lobbying campaign (in the form of calls from SecState Clinton and a personal appearance by US Sen. John Kerry) to convince Karzai that a runoff–or at the very least a power sharing agreement with opponent Abdullah Abdullah–would be the right course of action.  It must have worked, because on Tuesday Karzai held a press conference announcing that a runoff vote will take place on Nov. 7 between Abdullah and Karzai.

While this would appear to offer resolution to all of this craziness, it in fact only adds a new level of insanity. Sub-zero temperatures have already enveloped parts of Afghanistan, and many other provinces will soon be socked-in by snow. Getting ballots and other voting materials to these places in just over two weeks will be a major challenge in a country with few roads and almost no asphalt.

And even if polling centers can be set up in time, who will show up to vote? The first round of voting had only a 38 percent turnout, and that was after massive get-out-the vote drives. It’s a good bet that many people in rural provinces (read: all of them) don’t even yet know that a runoff will be held next month or who the candidates will be. Oh, and there’s a full scale insurgency raging in the east and south, so some Afghans will have to decide whether risking their lives is worth casting a ballot. Decisions!

Now you have been briefed on the latest goings on. Did I leave stuff out? Of course! But that’s why it’s called a “recap” and not a “thorough analysis-cap.” Even still, you now probably know more about Afghan politics than any of your friends will care to hear. If there’s a way to use that to your advantage, please let me know as it’s the story of my life.