How The US Will Get Out of Afghanistan

US soldiers head out on a mission (photo by P.J.)

CNN dropped this story on Friday, and though it got little play in US papers, it is an extremely significant development. In short, ISI—Pakistan’s CIA equivalent—has offered to use its Taliban contacts to open a dialogue between insurgent leaders and the US.

This is critical because it begins to open the window for a way out of the war. Myself and others have long held that the US under Obama will try an Afghan surge—as we’re seeing now—improve security as much as possible, train the heck out of Afghan police and military—which we’re seeing here—then, sometime before the next US presidential election, strike a truce with moderate elements of the Taliban, declare victory and withdraw the bulk of our forces.

This deal may be the first step in a dialogue that will lead to that truce.

By moderate Taliban, I mean Taliban that will still keep women in burkas, but won’t allow terrorist training camps in Kandahar. And as for withdrawal, I don’t think we’ll ever fully leave our huge base in Bagram. The place is like a city, with fancy airstrips, a hospital that any small-town would be lucky to have, and of course, Burger King and Orange Julius. I really don’t think the US is going to leave all that behind and abandon a strategically important cross-road of the world. So instead of “withdrawal,” let’s say “massive reduction in forces.” (Also, you can bet that US Special Forces and CIA operators will still be crawling all over this place in twenty-years, making sure that those terrorist bases are indeed not being built.)

The offer from ISI doesn’t come free. According to the CNN story, Pakistan wants “concessions from Washington over Islamabad’s concerns with longtime rival India.” I’m no expert on the India/Pakistan fracas, I only know what I read in the papers and what my Indian and Pakistani friends say, so I can’t comment on what those concessions would be.

The Pakistani who told all this to CNN is Maj. Athar Abbas, director general of a Pakistani government agency called Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR.) An ISPR spokesman later denied Abbas’ claims about ISI’s Taliban ties, but I’m willing to believe it.

Most people say that ISI probably has the best Taliban contacts in the world, thanks to…wait for it…the U.S.A!

Back in the 80’s, when the US was supporting the Mujahadeen against the Russians in Afghanistan, we funneled the money and arms to those insurgents through Pakistan. In those days, as now, Afghan insurgents operated out of bases in the tribal areas along the Af/Pak border. (Anyone who’s seen Charlie Wilson’s War or Rambo III knows exactly what I’m talking about.)

Since that time, the relationship between the Mujahadeen—who would later give birth to the Taliban—and Pakistan has been close. After 9/11, Pakistan “officially” stopped supplying Afghans with funding and training, but according to Maj. Abbas, the door has always been open for the exchange of information.

Now the good part. US Special Envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Hobrooke did not categorically shoot down the offer:

“I’m not going to rule out or rule in anything on such a hypothetical basis,” he said. “And I’m not going to get drawn into speculation on an issue this complicated.

“There is room in Afghanistan,” he said, “for Taliban people who’ve fought with the Taliban, who were willing to participate in the political structure, who were willing to dissociate and renounce Al Qaeda, and who were willing to lay down their arms.”

This is not going to happen today. It is entirely possible that the US will eventually turn the offer down publicly. But what happens in public in this part of the world is very different that what happens behind closed doors and drawn curtains, over steaming cups of chai.

None of this surprises me. I was only shocked that I, and probably the State Department, found out via CNN.