The Most Important Election This Summer Will Not Take Place in Iran

A Kabul billboard for Afghan presidential candidate Ashraf Ghani. (photo by P.J.)

We have all been captivated by the historic popular uprising on the streets of Tehran, and rightly so.

Whenever a government shoots down young, idealistic citizens who want nothing more than for their votes to be counted, the world should take notice. The drama is heightened  because there’s also been a revolution in the way we take notice. Twitter, YouTube and blogs have brought us the stories from Iran in a way that traditional media never has or could.

But for most people, Americans in particular, this election and its aftermath will not have nearly the impact on their lives and pocketbooks that Afghanistan’s Aug 20 presidential vote will.

For one thing, the US is paying for the Afghan election in blood and treasure.

The US has pledged $40 million for ballots and voting facilities. American lives will be on the line as US soldiers help provide security at polling places. Military commanders are predicting an uptick in insurgent activity (read: killing and dying) around the election because the Taliban also wants to have its say on election day.

Making all this more difficult is the fact that the election itself—as I’ve written—will almost certainly be rigged. In fact, the shenanigans have already started, to sometimes hilarious effect.

Britney Spears jokes and money aside, in a strategic sense we are much more heavily invested in the outcome of Afghanistan’s election than Iran’s.

No matter who ends up leading Iran, their nuclear program isn’t going away and neither is their antagonistic attitude toward Israel. Some even argue that the status quo in Iran would be better for the US’ most important ally.

If Hamid Karzai is re-elected however, we can expect more patronage and warlordism in rural provinces, hell, in every province. Furthering such corruption only makes it easier for criminals like the Haqqanis to operate and sow terror. Widening their reach would lengthen the US military mission by years.

Geopolitically, a new Afghan president could also have a much wider impact for the world than a change in Iran’s chief executive.

If somebody like Dr. Ashraf Ghani were to win this election, we might see genuine reform in Afghanistan, reform that would improve security and allow the bulk of NATO forces to leave gracefully. By marginalizing warlords, a legitimate, progressive government of Afghanistan would isolate the Taliban, making them a less effective fighting force. It could even have the effect of hurting terrorist networks worldwide, who send recruits to Afghanistan for real-world, battlefield training.

Unfortunately, I doubt the election here will garner the kind of feverish worldwide notice that Iran’s has. The irony of this is that, unlike Iran, it has been easy for journalists and NGOs to expose voting fraud here, because the election process is more transparent. By showing the world these irregularities, there is some (small) hope that the criminality can be brought to heal. But only if people are paying attention.

Sure, I’ve heard that a few top-drawer network news types will be parachuting into Kabul around mid-August, but I doubt Andrew Sullivan will go wall-to-wall with coverage, as he has lately done with Iran.

Not that I can blame the media. The story here is much more complicated than Iran’s. There will be no color scheme for the opposition and Afghans won’t be “Tweeting” or posting images on YouTube about what’s going on here. That’s because only 1.5 percent of Afghans have internet.

Which brings me to my last point: This election could potentially be much more important for the Afghan people than Iran’s election is to Iranians. Iran has oil, infrastructure and a middle class. Tehran is a modern city with highways, restaurants and plenty of electricity. The country is a power player in regional politics, even developing a nuclear program. No matter who their president is, Iranians have plenty to eat and clean water to drink.

Not so Afghanistan. I won’t even get into all of the dreadful statistics about infant mortality, poverty, malnutrition and illiteracy in Afghanistan. You can read them for yourself here.

If Karzai is re-elected, there is little hope here that the downward spiral will reverse, while Afghans that I’ve spoken with express real optimism about some of his challengers. A new president won’t solve all of Afghanistan’s ills overnight, but I fear that if Karzai is re-elected, they won’t be solved at all.

The consequences of such inaction will be much more expensive and deadly than whatever follows the tumult in Iran.