What the Torture Pictures Would Show

I’m a bit late to this discussion, but lucky for me, and necessarily for the country, it’s a conversation that should last for a while. In any event, the decision by President Obama not to release a collection of photographs depicting prisoner abuse and torture perpetrated by Americans on suspected insurgents and terrorists is, to me, profoundly disappointing and wrong-headed. With each decision, Obama seems to be codifying a political style that first gauges what is possible, and what is best, overall, with a given issue, and proceeds from there. It’s not so much about scoring points or making statements, but about making moves that will provide the maximum benefit in the future. And in many ways, I think that’s how it should be done. In this instance, Andrew Sullivan is hoping that’s what he’s doing, making a long-view gesture that might increase his ability to push for real justice and accountability in the future.

Maybe so, but a part of the equation Sullivan sees, or hopes to see, I should say, and a bigger part of the opinion some higher ups in the military apparently hold–as related by Tom Ricks–is that releasing the photos would inflame public opinion in Iraq and Afghanistan, thus putting American personnel at greater risk. This is the bit I don’t buy. The torture is something everyone in these places know happened. And there is a widespread belief, a near-certainty, in fact, in these populaces that more of it happened than has been revealed, and that worse has happened that what has been revealed. Some of this could be chalked up to the rampant conspiracy theories that take root in places where there is no real order and not enough belief in the structures of governance to overcome the sense that “hidden hands” are at work all over the place. This must be understood when dealing with post-conflict situations, especially ones involving populations that are deeply traumatized. But in these same places, there are also opinions born simply from the reading of events that clearly and demonstrably–because, say, they were depicted in photographs–did happen, and are discussed in tea shops and on the streets in Baghdad, Kabul, Mosul, Kandahar, or elsewhere.

It is a good bet that protests and demonstrations would have followed if the photos were released. In 2006, I saw the protests over the Danish cartoons depicting the prophet Mohammed firsthand in different parts of Afghanistan, so I have no illusions about how new torture photos would be cast and used for political gain or to further weaken the fraying threads of stability that exist. At the same time, though, not releasing the pictures could be just as damaging. The fact that Obama is not releasing them–and is going back on a promise, and is doing something that Bush did–will be discussed in those same aforementioned tea stalls and on those aforementioned streets (along with others). They will undermine some of the sense that this new guy is different, that he is not from a familiar (to them) American mold that will shield and obfuscate its more devious deeds. And that will further color the impression of the soldiers deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan, including those new forces who will be headed to some of the most troubled regions of Afghanistan. And let’s not forget that these impressions are already heavily impacted by air strikes that have at times gone horriby wrong and the conduct of the Special Forces guys, who have been running around at night and kicking in the doors of Pashtun families in the South, looking for persons-of-interest in a manner that follows the philosophies of ex-Special Ops chief and newly named commander of all forces in the country, Gen. Stanley McChrsytal, and in the process further alienating and enraging populations we (and Kabul) need to buy into this project. If I’m a Taliban propagandist, you better believe I’d be talking up both things–the home invasions and the freeze on the release of the pictures–and you’d better believe I could get traction on both issues.

So, yeah, maybe there’s a long-term strategy at work here, and maybe we’ve avoided some burning effigies and such, and maybe this will help Obama to position himself for investigations and trials on down the road, but I just don’t see the short-term benefit in the same way, and I wouldn’t bet that the long-term result, overseas at least, is going to play out to our advantage.