
Gamal "Jimmy" Mubarak: Heir to the throne? Image by AFP/Getty Images via @daylife
Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s long-serving president, has been in bad health for quite some time. The country’s censorship laws make prison a likely possibility for anyone discussing his health in print. Even bloggers and Twitter users who discuss Mubarak’s health too loudly risk imprisonment. As a result, a cottage industry has been built up around Mubarak health rumors in Egypt.
In ealy 2010, German and Russian television erroneously reported that Mubarak died after he disappeared for six weeks.
Mubarak made a public appearance some day after the television reports to dispel rumors, but his schedule has been erratic ever since.
According to the Washington Times, US intelligence believes Mubarak has terminal cancer of the stomach and pancreas. Despite the paper’s sometimes ideologically-motivated leanings, the story appears solid. The reporter who got the scoop, Eli Lake, has a solid record on national security and intelligence stories.
The 82-year-old President is one of the Middle East’s longest-serving leaders; Mubarak has been in office since 1981.
So what happens when Mubarak dies?
We don’t know.
First of all, there’s no guarantee Mubarak may be going anytime soon. Fidel Castro has held onto nominal power for years despite obvious infirmities and history is full of seriously ill leaders serving as figureheads while their advisors “keep the boat rowing.”
According to Steven A. Cook, a senior fellow and Egypt specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations, an entire floor of the military hospital in Cairo’s Mahdi neighborhood “was prepared to treat him” and that “I heard that they pump him up with something that makes him able to function, so he can do these meetings and go to these public events.”
Mubarak’s hand-picked successor is son Gamal, a technocrat with support among Egypt’s upper classes. However, Gamal is widely percieved as inexperienced and a bit of a dilletante. When the senior Mubarak dies, Gamal Mubarak — nicknamed “Jimmy” — will be competing with Egyptian intelligence chief General Omar Suleiman and former International Atomic Energy Head Mohammed el-Baradei for control of the nation. Suleiman enjoys widespread military support but is viewed as somewhat hesitant to assume power. El-Baradei has widespread support among the masses, but has limited support within Egypt’s ruling National Democratic Party.
Most importantly, Egyptian law bans el-Baradei, the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize Winner, from running for president in the next year.
Egypt’s largest opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood is officially banned but nonetheless retains several seats in parliament. While they undoubtedly would like to assume power, they lack support within the country’s military, upper class and middle class.
Given Mubarak’s precarious health, a betting man would put the odds on the President passing sooner rather than later. When he passes, there will be change. But what kind of change, exactly — a continuation of National Democratic Party rule or a change in governmental structure — is open to debate.
But some things won’t change. For instance, Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel or the $1.5 billion in foreign aid Egypt recieves from the US annually.
While anti-Israel sentiment permeates every sector of Egyptian society, the two countries share a quiet-yet-substantial working relationship based on common enemies (read: Iran, political Islamists). More importantly, the National Democratic Party views the Islamist Hamas government in the Gaza Strip as an enemy; they have often gone out of their way to work with Israel to make life difficult for Hamas.
While anything is possible, the Muslim Brotherhood only have an outside chance to assume power — barring unforeseen circumstances, either Suleiman, el-Baradei or the younger Mubarak will inherit control of Egypt.
Meanwhile, the Christian Science Monitor is anticipating Egypt’s “possible regime change” while bloggers at The Guardian are encouraging Egyptian activists to emulate American hippies. Yes, hippies.
Meanwhile, popular discontent in Egypt is expoding over government corruption while Egypt’s middle and upper classes continue to experience enviable economic growth.
In other words: The next year will be interesting for Egyptians — and the world.