Turkey, Armenia to establish diplomatic relations

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History is being made this week in the Caucasuses. Turkey and Armenia are expected to open diplomatic ties and resolve the Nagorno-Krabakh conflict. Neither Turkey nor Armenia recognizes each other’s governments; starting in 1915 the Ottoman Empire killed between 600,000 and 1.5 millions in what is called (outside Turkey) the Armenian Genocide. To this day, the Turkish government has refused to recognize the Armenian genocide and disputes nearly every aspect of it.

The status of the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan is expected to be resolved. In the waning years of the Soviet Union, ethnic Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan rebelled and, backed by Armenian weapons and manpower, established a de-facto republic in their Azeri enclave. Azerbaijan shares extensive cultural and ethnic ties with Turkey — the two countries’ languages are closely related — and is a primary recipient of Turkish military aid. Over 1 million people on both sides were made homeless by the conflict.

The agreement, to be signed in Moldova, will also reopen borders between the two countries. Like everything else though, the agreement comes down to money and prestige. Armenia is expected to make widespread concessions that will make Turkey the undisputed regional power in the Caucasuses, easing Turkey’s way into the European Union. Azerbaijan has been threatening drastic price increases in the natural gas it sells to Turkey — which would likely be prevented by the agreement. According to a joint statement made by the Armenian, Turkish and Swiss Foreign Ministries:

The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Turkey have agreed to start their internal political consultations on two protocols – the ‘Protocol on the establishment of diplomatic relations’ and the ‘Protocol on the development of bilateral relations’ – which have been initiated in the course of their efforts under Swiss mediation.

The two Protocols provide for a framework for the normalization of their bilateral relations within a reasonable timeframe. The political consultations will be completed within six weeks, following which the two Protocols will be signed and submitted to the respective Parliaments for the ratification on each side. Both sides will make their best efforts for the timely progression of the ratification in line with their constitutional and legal procedures.

The normalization of bilateral relations will contribute to the regional peace and stability. The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Turkey are committed are pursuing their joint efforts with the assistance of Switzerland.

Ethnic Armenians living in other countries — the Armenian diaspora — are not happy. In Beirut, thousands of angry demonstrators from Lebanon’s Armenian community of 140,000 — which is mostly composed of descendants of refugees from the Armenian Genocide — mobbed Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian when he came to town to discuss the plan. In Paris, ethnic Armenians protested the Eiffel Tower being lit up in the colors of the Turkish flag in commemoration of another state visit by Turkish President Abdullah Gul. In Los Angeles, more than 12,000 Armenian-Americans showed up to protest a visit by Sarkisian — and a dozen Armenian-Americans began to hold a hunger strike in front of the Armenian consulate.

Under the Turkish-Armenian agreement, Turkey would form a commission of Turkish, Armenian and foreign historians to study what Turkish President Gul called the “allegations about what happened a century ago.”

According to Turkish foreign minister Ahnmet Davutoglu, the signing of the joint Turkish-Armenian protocols would take place before the Turkey-Armenia World Cup qualifier on October 14. As in so many other things in this world, sports trumps politics.