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Oct. 23 2010 — 5:23 pm | 0 views | 0 recommendations | 0 comments

The Contrarian Take moving to Forbes Blog

Good news everyone!

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE is moving over to the Forbes Blog.  The URL for my new site is here…

http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

There will be a bit of a transition, as logistically it will take some time to move over my complete data series history but I am already well on my way.

Hope you follow me to Forbes

Regards,

Michael



Sep. 22 2010 — 7:48 am | 0 views | 0 recommendations | 1 comment

Monetary Watch, FOMC one step closer to QE II

The Federal Reserve put its finger on the trigger at September’s FOMC meeting, proclaiming to the world that QE II could very well be at hand.

As discussed in THE CONTRARIAN TAKE’s September Monetary Watch, as scripted by Bernanke at Jackson Hole, the FOMC, citing deteriorating economic conditions and subdued price inflation, put one of their three QE tools into action.  The FOMC modified its communiqué,  guaranteeing whatever amount of money necessary to stimulate economic growth should economic and/or financial market conditions continue to deteriorate. And for all those who might be concerned about the impact that flood of money will have on prices, the FOMC says not to worry.  True to form, it made crystal clear that price inflation is simply nowhere in sight.  In fact, it is patently too low.  And given all the resource slack in the economy, the Federal Reserve should be able to print all the money it wants.

Here’s the FOMC statement, bold italics are THE CONTRARIAN TAKE:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts are at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract, but at a reduced rate in recent months. The Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be modest in the near term.

Measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to remain subdued for some time before rising to levels the Committee considers consistent with its mandate.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate.

In the opinion of the THE CONTRARIAN TAKE, Bernanke and the FOMC have played their hand.  If  economic conditions worsen, its checkmate for the Bernanke led FOMC – they have to act.  As discussed in September’s Monetary Watch, the CONTRARIAN TAKE fully expects economic conditions to worsen, perhaps quite soon. And, as Bernanke told us at Jackson Hole, that means another round of asset monetization and/or a cut in the interest rate that the Federal Reserve pays on excess reserves.  And that means the money supply, on THE CONTRARIAN TAKE’s TMS2 metric growing at an already robust 1o.7% rate, is about to get a steroid injection courtesy of the Federal Reserve.

Before ending this brief missive, a word on Ben Bernanke, the economist.  If ever there was a deflation hawk, this man is it.  This is an economist that is absolutely convinced that it was the Federal Reserve and its tight monetary policy before and after the 1929 stock market crash that gave us the Great Depression, that the correct policy response by the Federal Reserve post the stock market crash was to print money and to continue printing money until economic recovery was assured.  As discussed in September’s Monetary Watch, Austrians know the opposite to be true – that it is easy money policies that create artificial booms, that sooner or later those booms require busts, and that fighting busts with more easy money policies only adds insult to injury and creates even bigger busts down the line.

But be that as it may, it is why a Bernanke led Federal Reserve virtually guarantees more monetary inflation.  Bernanke, in his mind, is not about to repeat the supposed mistakes of his predecessors at the Federal Reserve.  Indeed, having been scared to death by the credit implosion of 2008-2009, Bernanke can be expected to move and move fast, with a printing press under each arm when the economy takes another negative turn.

By the looks of it, that move may be only a few bad economic reports away.

Based on the monetary insights of the Austrian school of economics, THE CONTRARIAN TAKE offers up the latest monthly money supply metrics for the U.S., Eurozone and Japan currency blocks.

To see the entire monthly series offering – the latest money supply data for all three currency blocks, with full historical data and chart work, as well as supporting definitions, sources, notes and references – click here on Austrian Money Supply.

For a quick link to money supply definitions, sources, notes and references, click here on Austrian Money Supply Definitions, Sources, Notes and References.

For the logic behind the formulation of Austrian money supply, read Money Supply Metrics, the Austrian Take.



Sep. 19 2010 — 11:27 pm | 0 views | 0 recommendations | 2 comments

Monetary Watch September 2010, QE II when not if

The Austrian take on where we are on the monetary inflation front and what’s next…

Where We Are

The money supply aggregates based on the Austrian definition of the money supply (TMS) surged in August, with broad TMS2, THE CONTRARIAN TAKE’s preferred money supply metric, up an annualized 9.5%.  The more important year over year growth rate on TMS2 was once again sporting a double digit rate, posting a rate of 10.7% in August, up from July’s 10.3% rate.  This makes the 20th consecutive month that TMS2 has posted double digit year over year growth, a cumulative increase of 19% over those 20 months.  To put those figures into perspective, the run-up to the now infamous housing bubble turn credit implosion turn Great Recession saw a string of 36 months of double digit growth for a cumulative increase of 48%.  So yes, today’s inflationary largesse may be only 40% of that which brought on the Great Recession, but this one’s still in process.

As has been the case throughout 2010, M2, the mainstream’s favorite monetary aggregate, continues to show anemic growth, in July posting a year over year growth of just 2.7%.  As readers of this column are aware, in the opinion of THE CONTRARIAN TAKE, M2 is a grossly misleading measure of the money supply, meaning the gap between the true and the perceived rate of monetary inflation is a hefty 8 percentage points.

Combine this anemic rate of monetary inflation as measured by M2 with the widespread aghast over historically low “core” rates of price inflation as measured by mainstream price level aggregates such as CPI,  PPI and PCE and, contrary to the facts, you can see why deflationary concerns are currently all the rage.

To an Austrian though, inflation is the increase in the supply of money.  One of its consequences, though not nearly the most important, is the lagged impact an increase in the supply of money has on the general level of goods and services prices.  Indeed, far more important are the distortions and dislocations such monetary largesse wrecks on the economy and financial markets – in Austrian terms, the boom turn inevitable bust – the latest one being the housing bubble turn credit implosion turn Great Recession.

So, to the FOMC and mainstream economists and investors alike, deflation remains right around the corner.  To an Austrian, inflation is alive and well.

A Look at TMS2 Internals

In THE CONTRARIAN TAKE’s August Monetary Watch, we had a look at the source of today’s monetary inflation, making the case that it’s the Federal Reserve via the issuance of base money, namely currency plus bank reserves (the bulk of which springs directly from the Federal Reserve’s power to monetize assets by writing checks on itself), that has provided the majority of the monetary largesse over the past 2 years.  Private banks, historically responsible for the lion’s share of inflation via the issuance of uncovered money substitutes (which springs from the ability of those banks to pyramid deposits on top of base money when making loans or purchasing assets), have largely stood aside.

Well, recent trends suggest that while private banks may not yet be ready to reassert their more dominant role in the monetary inflation process, they are certainly beginning to make a contribution.  Uncovered money substitutes increased an annualized 13.4% in August and are now up 8.6% annualized over the last three months and 8.3% over the last twelve.  There relative size in TMS2 is shown below:

Note the recent trend, with uncovered money substitutes rising from a low of 68% of TMS2 in February to August’s 71%.

To repeat, this is not to say that private banks are about to turn on the monetary spigots and let it rip.  Indeed, while bank loan and investment aggregates have seen some life of late, recent trends in the credit aggregates suggest that the growth in uncovered money substitutes is more the result of depositors liquidating time deposits and other term bank deposits in favor of instantly redeemable demand deposits, other checkable deposits and savings accounts.  In Austrian speak, bank creditors are liquidating credit claims, raising cash, then depositing and holding that cash in money substitute form with those same banks.

That said, if in fact these currently risk averse private banks, that sit on top of $1 trillion plus in reserves, are ready to multiply those reserves into credit and deposits, that plus another round of quantitative easing could create one heck of an inflation party, possibly to the tune of trillions of dollars.  Certainly no guarantee, but something clearly worth watching, especially if a deflation wary Federal Reserve is prepared to give the banks a bit of a “push.”  Say, by reducing the rate it pays those banks on their excess reserves?  As discussed below, not mere speculation, but by the Federal Reserve’s own admission something that could very well be at hand.

What’s Next

In a word, QE II.

Let’s begin with Chairman Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole on August 27th:

… the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed somewhat in recent months, in part because of slower-than-expected growth in consumer spending, as well as continued weakness in residential and nonresidential construction. Despite this recent slowing, however, it is reasonable to expect some pickup in growth in 2011 and in subsequent years… And as the expansion strengthens, firms should become more willing to hire. Inflation should remain subdued for some time, with low risks of either a significant increase or decrease from current levels.

Although what I have just described is, I believe, the most plausible outcome, macroeconomic projections are inherently uncertain, and the economy remains vulnerable to unexpected developments. The Federal Reserve is already supporting the economic recovery by maintaining an extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy, using multiple tools. Should further action prove necessary, policy options are available to provide additional stimulus…

Indeed, as Chairman Bernanke continually reminds us, the Federal Reserve is compelled to provide that stimulus, for it is not only charged with providing stable prices but with promoting economic growth and full employment.  And as luck would have it, it appears, at least in Bernanke’s mind, that the current setup for that said stimulus couldn’t be better:

First, the FOMC will strongly resist deviations from price stability in the downward direction. Falling into deflation is not a significant risk for the United States at this time, but that is true in part because the public understands that the Federal Reserve will be vigilant and proactive in addressing significant further disinflation. It is worthwhile to note that, if deflation risks were to increase, the benefit-cost tradeoffs of some of our policy tools could become significantly more favorable.

Second, regardless of the risks of deflation, the FOMC will do all that it can to ensure continuation of the economic recovery. Consistent with our mandate, the Federal Reserve is committed to promoting growth in employment and reducing resource slack more generally. Because a further significant weakening in the economic outlook would likely be associated with further disinflation, in the current environment there is little or no potential conflict between the goals of supporting growth and employment and of maintaining price stability.

In other words, if the economy continues to weaken, Bernanke will be a man on a mission.  With price inflation expected to be of no concern, its Katy bar the door – the Federal Reserve will be free to roll out whatever tools necessary to pump the money supply and save the economy.

So, what are those tools?  Back to Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech:

Notwithstanding the fact that the policy rate is near its zero lower bound, the Federal Reserve retains a number of tools and strategies for providing additional stimulus. I will focus here on three that have been part of recent staff analyses and discussion at FOMC meetings: (1) conducting additional purchases of longer-term securities, (2) modifying the Committee’s communication, and (3) reducing the interest paid on excess reserves.

The first tool – conducting additional purchases of longer-term securities means another round of asset monetization, another round of base money and therefore a guaranteed dollar for dollar expansion in the money supply.

The second tool – modifying the Committee’s communication is simply, when all is said it done, the FOMC telling the market it plans on implementing the first tool – asset monetization – whenever and for however long it deems appropriate.

The third and final tool - reducing the interest paid on excess reserves, that’s the mother load, and “liquidity trap” concerns notwithstanding, perhaps all that is needed to push private banks into liquidating their $1 trillion plus reserve stash and pyramiding up the money supply through a multiple expansion of loans and investments.  You see, if private banks, the same banks that have been hoarding reserves in fear of their solvency (at 25 bps, 15bps over one-month Treasuries and about the same as one-year Treasuries, thank you very much), choose not to impair their liquidity position by making risky loans or purchasing risky assets, or if private borrowers, those same borrowers many of whom are currently up to their necks in debt, choose not to borrow, there’s always that swelling supply of “super safe” U.S. Treasury and agency securities to fill the bill.  For the U.S. government is currently more than willing to be both the borrower and spender of first and last resort.  And what better way to push banks in that direction than to pay little to nothing on excess reserves.

So there’s the QE II playbook.  The only questions remaining are – if and when.

Well, in the opinion of THE CONTRARIAN TAKE, there is no if.  It’s simply a matter of when.  Here’s why…

To an Austrian, easy money and managed interest rates are the source of, not the solution to the things Chairman Bernanke fears most – a weak economy, high rate of unemployment and yes, even deflation.  Such monetary interventions in the economy always and everywhere create artificial booms, bubbles in popular parlance, with their inevitable consequence always and everywhere being busts – credit crises, recessions and depressions.  You see, by artificially lowering interest rates and creating money and credit out of thin air, a central bank, aided and embedded by its too big too fail private bank partners, create economic and financial distortions – malinvestments, which eventually must be liquidated.  And once the central bank ceases its easy money policies, by halting the further issuance of money and money substitutes, or even slowing its rate of increase, the boom soon comes to an end and the bust ensues.  Sooner or later, free market forces prevail.  Sooner or later, the central bank induced boom REQUIRES a bust.

So then, what has Chairman Bernanke given us, so far?  Double digit money supply growth and zero interest rates, right.  He’s given us a boom (an anemic one at that) that at some point MUST give us a bust.  Combine this certainty with the repeal of the Bush tax cuts, the likely crippling impact of Obamacare and Fin Reg, and what seems a never ending parade of intrusive government programs as far as the eye can see, all against a still debt-laden private sector, and it’s easy to see why the economy is in a heap of trouble.

And in time, and by extension, it’s equally easy to see the near certain implementation of Bernanke’s QE II tool set.

Now, while a 10.7% year over year rate of growth in TMS2 is highly inflationary, it is down from the high of 16.5% posted back in November of 2009.  That fact plus the economically debilitating effects of the pending tax increases, as well as the plethora of forthcoming government interventions into the economy, suggest that our current anemic boom could very well be close to turning bust.  And with that, it should go without saying that with Ben Bernanke at the helm of the Federal Reserve, another round of Federal Reserve engineered inflation could be right around the corner.

Based on the monetary insights of the Austrian school of economics, THE CONTRARIAN TAKE offers up the latest monthly money supply metrics for the U.S., Eurozone and Japan currency blocks.

To see the entire monthly series offering – the latest money supply data for all three currency blocks, with full historical data and chart work, as well as supporting definitions, sources, notes and references – click here on Austrian Money Supply.

For a quick link to money supply definitions, sources, notes and references, click here on Austrian Money Supply Definitions, Sources, Notes and References.

For the logic behind the formulation of Austrian money supply, read Money Supply Metrics, the Austrian Take.



Aug. 17 2010 — 5:30 pm | 2,240 views | 0 recommendations | 4 comments

Monetary Watch August 2010, The Fed exits its exit strategy

The Austrian take on where we are on the monetary inflation front and what’s next…

Where We Are

The money supply aggregates based on the Austrian definition of the money supply (TMS) slipped in July, with broad TMS2, THE CONTRARIAN TAKE’s preferred money supply metric, down an annualized 2.6%.  However, the more important year over year growth rate on TMS2 was a robust 10.3% in July, down just slightly from June’s 10.6% rate, making this the 19th consecutive month that TMS2 has posted double digit year over year growth.  The last time TMS2 saw this kind of string was during the run-up to the now infamous housing boom-bust, a string that saw 36 consecutive months of double digit growth.  True, not housing bubble worthy, at least not yet, but still a lot of inflation.

As was the case in June, one would not know it by looking at M2.  This mainstream money supply aggregate, the one so closely watched by the deflation “hawks” at the FOMC, but in the opinion of the THE CONTRARIAN TAKE a grossly misleading measure of the money supply, is showing a year over year growth rate of a mere 2%.

To an Austrian, inflation is alive and well.  To the FOMC, mainstream economists and investors alike, deflation is lurking right around the corner.

A Look at TMS2 Internals

Before discussing the prospects for inflation going forward, a look at the TMS2 internals is instructive.

To begin, inflation springs from two basic sources:

The Federal Reserve, via the issuance of currency and covered money substitutes, the combined total popularly termed base money, the bulk of which springs directly from the Federal Reserve’s power to monetize assets by writing checks on itself.

Private banks, via the issuance of uncovered money substitutes, which springs from the ability of those banks to pyramid deposits on top of base money (read create money out of thin air), when making loans or purchasing assets.

With that as background, a look at the chart below quickly reveals who has done the heavy lifting when it comes to inflation; i.e., who’s responsible for that string of double digit growth rates.  Hands down, it’s been the Federal Reserve, as private banking institutions have been generally unwilling to pyramid money substitutes on top of that mountain of base money.

So, with the bulk of the heavy lifting currently in the hands of the Federal Reserve, it should come as no surprise that with the cessation of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programs in March, and resultant leveling off of Federal Reserve Credit, money supply growth as measured by TMS2, although still robust, has eased, down from a year over year growth rate of 16.5% in November 2009 to July’s 10.3%.  And to repeat, in the eyes of the FOMC, with their focus on M2, a money supply rate of growth wallowing at a mere 2%.

All that could be changing soon, as it looks like the deflation hawks at the FOMC are about to step up and put a charge into the monetary aggregates.

What’s Next

Let’s begin with the August 10th FOMC press release, bold type THE CONTRARIAN TAKE’s:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract. Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated.

Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters and, with substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities.  The Committee will continue to roll over the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities as they mature.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.

First, the obvious.  While it is true that TMS2 has been decelerating, the fact is TMS2 is still running at double digit growth rates. Simply said, there is a lot of inflation around, supported by a still huge Federal Reserve balance sheet. Yet, citing little signs of inflation, likely supported by that 2% M2 growth rate, it is clear that the FOMC has no idea inflation is this robust.

Second, and as a consequence, the FOMC has decided to not only continue to maintain exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period, but to exit its exit strategy, as it will now keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities.

Third, fully aware of the banks unwillingness to extend credit (again read create money), the FOMC ends its press release by assuring the market that when it comes to money it is prepared to do the heavy lifting once more, not only by ending its exit strategy, but employing whatever other policy tools it deems useful to insure the economy gets all the inflation it needs.

What are those policy tools?

As St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, a supposed hawk and voting FOMC member, laid it out recently – Q.E. II, meaning more asset monetization, before as he says the U.S. slips into a Japanese style deflation.

A position Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke supports?  You bet.

Perhaps some short-term weakness still in TMS2, but don’t count on it for too long.  A few more disappointing economic reports, perhaps two or three more ugly employment reports, or maybe another credit event, and THE CONTRARIAN TAKE is thinking another round of Federal Reserve engineered inflation is right around the corner.

This time likely starting  from an already robust rate.

Based on the monetary insights of the Austrian school of economics, THE CONTRARIAN TAKE offers up the latest monthly money supply metrics for the U.S., Eurozone and Japan currency blocks.

To see the entire monthly series offering – the latest money supply data for all three currency blocks, with full historical data and chart work, as well as supporting definitions, sources, notes and references – click here on Austrian Money Supply.

For a quick link to money supply definitions, sources, notes and references, click here on Austrian Money Supply Definitions, Sources, Notes and References.

For the logic behind the formulation of Austrian money supply, read Money Supply Metrics, the Austrian Take.



Aug. 3 2010 — 9:20 pm | 1,568 views | 1 recommendations | 2 comments

Monetary Watch July 2010, Inflation alive and well with more to come

Contrary to the popular consensus, monetary inflation is alive and well and quite possibly set to accelerate.

The Austrian take on where we are and what’s next…

Where We Are

The money supply aggregates based on the Austrian definition of the money supply (TMS) surged in June, up 15.6% annualized on narrow TMS1 and 8.4% annualized on the broader TMS2.   Not too shabby.  And although TMS1 is only showing a 2.4% rate of growth year on year, the more important TMS2 metric, the metric THE CONTRARIAN TAKE views as the best overall measure of the money supply in the U.S., is growing at a very robust 10.6 % rate.

In other words, inflation is alive and well.

One would not know it by looking at M2, would they?  This mainstream money supply aggregate, the one so closely watched by the Federal Reserve, mainstream economists and investors alike, but in the opinion of the THE CONTRARIAN TAKE a grossly misleading measure of the money supply, is showing a year over year growth rate of a mere 1.9%.

Having said this, the growth in bothTMS1 and TMS2 has been decelerating of late, reflecting a Federal Reserve balance sheet that has clearly plateaued, particularly since March when the Federal Reserve ended its mortgage asset purchase program.

So then-  yes we have double digit TMS2, but where to from here.

What’s Next

First, lets start with the obvious.  While it is true that the Austrian money supply aggregates have been decelerating, the fact is the all important TMS2 measure is still running at double digit growth rates, and at growth rates still above the median of the last 10 years.  Simply said, there is a lot of inflation around, supported by a still huge Federal Reserve balance sheet.

What’s more, and more importantly, the prospects for even more inflation seem to be growing by the minute.  Indeed, given the Federal Reserve’s preoccupation with the relatively subdued nature of the popular price indices, the persistently high unemployment rate and the continued weakness in housing juxtaposed against the anemic growth in that faulty M2 metric, one could make a strong case that the next big move in TMS will be up.

The reason?

A FOMC worried silly about what all these metrics suggest; namely, brewing deflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to begin expanding its balance sheet in earnest once more.

Witness St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, a supposed hawk and voting FOMC member, calling for Q.E. II, before as he says the U.S. slips into a Japanese style deflation.

A position Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke supports, you ask?  You bet.  One only has to read Bernanke’s account of the Japanese experience and what the Bank of Japan should have done about it to be assured that Bernanke is on side with Bullard – lock, stock and barrel.  Here it is in Bernanke’s own words.

Another round of Q.E. and another surge in TMS from its already high level, the CONTRARIAN TAKE surmises, may soon become fact.  You see, deflation hawk extraordinaire Chairman Bernanke and his new accomplice St. Louis President James Bullard will not for long be the only deflation-fearing, inflation-bent members of the FOMC.  Three new Obama-picked, and similarly inflation-bent Federal Reserve Board nominees, all fretting about those very same metrics, are about to be become permanent members of the FOMC – Dr. Janet L. Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Dr. Peter Diamond, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Sarah Bloom Raskin, commissioner of financial regulation for the state of Maryland.

Perhaps a bit more short-term weakness in TMS to come, but don’t count on it for too long.  At TMS2 10.6% and counting, another round of Federal Reserve engineered inflation is likely to put a charge into the monetary aggregates.

Based on the monetary insights of the Austrian school of economics, THE CONTRARIAN TAKE offers up the latest monthly money supply metrics for the U.S., Eurozone and Japan currency blocks.

To see the entire monthly series offering – the latest money supply data for all three currency blocks, with full historical data and chart work, as well as supporting definitions, sources, notes and references – click here on Austrian Money Supply.

For a quick link to money supply definitions, sources, notes and references, click here on Austrian Money Supply Definitions, Sources, Notes and References.

For the logic behind the formulation of Austrian money supply, read Money Supply Metrics, the Austrian Take.


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    About Me

    I am a retired Investment Banking professional, most recently Chief Operating Officer for the Bank's Cash Equity Trading Division. I am a passionate free market economist in the Austrian School tradition, a great admirer of the US founding fathers Thomas Jefferson and James Madison and a private investor.

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