Missing the point of the Leno turmoil
Not everyone is dumping on Jay Leno...
Nationally famous and superbly wealthy TV jokester Jay Leno is so well-regarded by NBC that it pinned its entire prime time programming strategy, to say nothing of its potential financial outlook, on his shoulders. And yet, former Washington Post and New York Daily News gossip columnist Lloyd Grove believes Leno can’t fight his own battles (even though he managed to hold his own in his Broadcasting and Cable interview this week).
In an oddly spirited defense of “the hardest working comic” in The Daily Beast, Grove recounts meeting a desperately image-conscious Jay Leno while working on a story about him in the ’90s — a Leno who flattered Grove by asking his advice about some jokes he was writing while also making independent calls to Grove’s editors to try to get an advance copy of the finished story. From this experience, Grove warns us not to count out Jay Leno during his newest ratings battle:
I came away with the sense of a relentless competitor—a gung-ho scrapper who needed to win the story just as much he needed to win the night. “I like the game,” Leno acknowledged back then. “The idea of the game is they should be able to beat you up as hard as they can, and if you’re still standing, the game is a lot of fun. It is great.” (via Don’t Count Leno Out – The Daily Beast )
True? Not true? Doesn’t matter — it totally misses the point.
The issue here is not that Jay Leno has the mettle, gumption and sheer, good ol’ American stick-to-it-iveness to outlast his media tormenters and give his NBC patrons the shiny brass ring they’ve been scrimping and saving to buy. The issue is that he’s losing money hand over fist for the biggest and most vocal of NBC’s 200 affiliate stations. An aw-shucks charm offensive is buying him some time with these folks, but it will never win the ultimate battle. Only money will. And Jay Leno knows that.
NBC estimates that, even with just a 1.5 rating in the 18 to 49 demographic, the shoe-string budget “Jay Leno Show” can turn a profit. And by doing away with multi-million dollar dramas and replacing them with Leno, the network believes it can save around $250 million a year.
All of which, if proven true, might be enough to shut up a ravenous press corps and pesky bloggers like me… but it still won’t help the affiliates. Right now, the lead-in to their 11 p.m. local news broadcasts — the cash cow of the affiliate universe — is bleeding them of audience and, consequently, advertising revenue. The fact that NBC and “The Jay Leno Show” publicly aspire to mediocre ratings is not exactly a reassuring pat on the back.
Even if everything NBC and Jay Leno hopes for the show comes true, it doesn’t solve the affiliate problem it’s created. And if you’re NBC or its new owners (likely Comcast), who are you ultimately going to side with? The lone affable comedian or the 200 affiliate station managers who are pissed off at seeing another ad dollar slip away with every new “Jaywalking” sketch that airs?
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I could be wrong about this, so bare with me for a moment:
But don’t affiliates just purchase the network license (and mandated schedule) and then fill ad time with the help of their own independent sales departments?
I understood the original issue to be that some 10:00 p.m. newscasts needed to be shifted to 11 to accommodate Leno – but other than that he shouldn’t have much of an impact on their ad sales.
Again, I could be missing something here.
Same math as always: audience = ad dollars. Lead-in is always critical, particularly for the 11 pm local newscasts who benefit from the previous show’s audience numbers (the draft factor, like biking just behind Lance Armstrong). If Leno’s audience is shrinking, then the 11 pm local newscast audience is shrinking, and so are their advertising revenues. The NBC domino effect.
Joseph… what andreaitis said.
In response to another comment. See in context »Ah, I was the missing the lead-in factor! It seems like Leno is causing a lot of friction in the affiliate universe then.
I wonder, if Comcast deal goes though, would they have the power to revoke his contact guarantee? But replace him with what? NBC has been desperate for a 10 o’clock hour-long hit for the better part of a decade.
In response to another comment. See in context »