Affiliates, Leno and the end of NBC (or: Is it time to panic yet?)

"Did you hear the one about the sinking network?" (Image via Flickr)

Shhhh… listen carefully. The noise you hear is not the thundering hoof beats of the great horse Silver, carrying a white-hatted Jay Leno to the rescue of NBC. Instead, that rumbling sound is the roiling seeds of discontent germinating in the executive suites of NBC affiliates around the country — the first, quiet footsteps of a potential revolt.

And if it goes unchecked, by next summer we could see the end of NBC as we’ve known it for the last five decades.

Let’s review: NBC’s rationale for airing the live, topical “The Jay Leno Show” talk show at 10 p.m. instead of traditional scripted dramas ran like this:

1. The Leno show will be cheaper to produce;
2. It can attract more younger viewers than the usual older-skewing, but higher-rated, dramas on other networks; and
3. A daily, topical show will thrive when the other nets’ scripted dramas go into repeats

Just over a month into the new TV season, those rationales are looking shaky.

After an initial spike during his September premiere, Leno’s 10 p.m. ratings have been consistently dropping. Not to worry, said NBC, our goal all along has been to do well in the younger 18 to 49 demographics and wait until our competition goes into reruns.

Last night, Leno had less than half the viewers of “CSI” Miami” — 4.6 million versus 11.2 million. It was Leno’s worst Monday rating of the year. The kicker? “CSI: Miami” was a rerun. What’s more: “CSI: Miami” nearly tripled Leno’s ratings in the 18 to 49 demographic: 3.1 to 1.3.

I think the word you’re looking for is: Yikes.

Granted, it’s still early in the season, and last night all the networks were competing with “Monday Night Football.” But such numbers are not the soothing balm NBC affiliates were looking for when they signed on to the Leno experiment.

You’ll remember back over the winter when a number of NBC affiliates worried that losing NBC’s traditional scripted shows at 10 p.m. would mean smaller lead-in audiences to their franchise-building, brand-establishing, revenue-generating 11 p.m. local news broadcasts. (WHDH in Boston even initially refused to air “The Jay Leno Show,” but backed down after some back-room strong-arming from 30 Rock.)

Instead, rather than looking like hysterical Cassandras, the affiliates’ worst worries are looking prescient:

Ratings for late newscasts at NBC affiliates in 44 of the top 56 metered markets are down this year, falling an average of 13 percent in the first four weeks of the season compared with a year ago. In 10 of the top 25 major markets, the numbers are worse, with New York down 22 percent, Philadelphia off 37 percent and Miami down 30 percent. (via A Leno Letdown – NYPost.com)

So… why haven’t NBC’s affiliates openly revolted yet? As usual, the answer is money. To soothe nervous affiliates, NBC gave them more of the 10 p.m. advertising inventory to sell locally than they used to have — and it’s been selling nicely, thank you.

But how long will the extra cash hold off the revolution?

It’s possible NBC could give up, cancel Leno and go back to scripted programming at 10 p.m. (Hey, I think there are some episodes of “Southland” sitting around somewhere…). Possible, but not likely.

It’s possible NBC could cancel Leno but stick to its penurious ways and give the 10 p.m. slot to the affiliates for local programming, becoming more like the Fox network (minus the good ratings). Again: Possible, but not likely.

Instead, I think we’re seeing the first signs of a radical shrinking of NBC as a broadcast network. Through a mix of modestly-rated, but critically acclaimed shows (like “The Office” and “30 Rock,”) local prime-time programming, strategic syndication and an optional “Jay Leno Show,” NBC, under a new owner, will operate much more like a cable network than a traditional broadcast network. A smaller NBC, with more modest aspirations, can focus on franchise hits rather than seven-days-a-week programming — and be just as successful as its corporate cousins USA and Bravo. Or The CW.

And there’s no shame in that… Hell, there’s practically no difference between cable and broadcast anymore anyway. Look at TNT: It has great dramas and broadcasts the NBA and it doing quite nicely for itself.

But dismantling a 50-year-old network whose archives are filled with some of television’s greatest programs is going to be damn painful to watch.

Over the summer before he premiered, Jay Leno dismissed the notion that his new show was going to be a cure-all that would save NBC. Then, like now, nobody listened to him.