The Upside of Swine Flu

Everyone’s worried about swine flu. The World Health Organization has raised the global pandemic alert level to “Phase 4,” which indicates definite person-to-person spread of a novel flu virus, and the potential for community level outbreaks – and it may very well go to Phase 5 (pandemic).  In the U.S., the Department of Homeland Security has declared a health emergency, now facing over 60 confirmed cases, with at least 45 in New York alone.  The first death within the continental U.S., a child in Texas, was just reported. Based on the spread of cases, now in Europe and elsewhere, it is clear that containment to the apparent origin in Mexico alone is not a viable option.

The situation is serious, and precautions are being taken. But for now, while not contained, it seems like this bout of swine flu will not reach 1918 Spanish Flu death tolls. At least we hope so. And after all, approximately 36,000 people die from symptoms associated with the regular, seasonal flu every year – and relatively few people have, thus far, died specifically because of swine flu – with most of them concentrated in one place.

So, paradoxically, a mild outbreak swine flu may be a blessing in disguise. This is for a number of reasons.

One, the government’s reaction to a crisis will be tested.  While there are many hard working, smart people on the job who are dealing with this crisis – from border issues to laboratory testing to public awareness – there are some gaps.  For example, the Health and Human Services Secretary was just approved and sworn in, and there isn’t yet a permanent U.S. Surgeon General. Truly, the government’s scientific prowess, its rules governing the safety of air travel, and even its use of new media channels like blogs and the now infamous Twitter will be displayed for all to see, and comment on.

Two, citizens will be more educated.  If “MSNBC is the place for politics,” CNN has become the place for swine flu. And on the micromessaging site Twitter, swine flu tweets are sounding off at the rate of 10,000 per hour. With this dose of information overload, people will no doubt learn a lot of information about how the seasonal flu differs from variants like bird flu and swine flu, the difference between the yearly flu shot and anti-viral drugs like Tamiflu, and learn about personal hygiene habits that can slow the spread of human-to-human transmitted disease.  As former HHS Secretary Louis Sullivan commented in a recent article, “Pandemic planning should be viewed as an insurance policy against the econommic damage that would result from widespread sickness, absenteeism, and death.

Which leads to upside number three: people will stock up on goods and knowledge.  They will obtain informative booklets and posters, personal protective equipment like masks, and supplies of food and water for their homes.  This has benefits beyond the current swine flu epidemic – federal, state, and local government cannot go it alone.  Personal preparedness, and indeed personal responsibility, are a critical part of readiness for any emergency.  America’s general readiness will increase.

It is too early to predict with any certainty what the long-term implications of the current swine flu epidemic are.  But perhaps a relatively mild swine flu scare is, in a sense, just what the doctor ordered.  The big upside of a moderate epidemic in a modern country is that we may become better prepared for a future naturally-occurring threat of a more deadly persuasion.