The tragic plane crash in Smolensk
Probably going to blame Vladimir Putin
The only question I have is who is going to be the first person to blame the death of Polish President Lech Kaczynski, and a number of other high-ranking Polish military and civilian officials, on Vladimir Putin? Any takers? Speaking personally, my money is on Anne Applebaum, who is not only married to Poland’s hawkish foreign minister but has some real experience in the “blaming everything on Putin” field as she once wrote a column directly blaming him (really!) for the theft of her purse. However, as always, there are a number of other strong contestants in the field so this is far from a done deal.
A related side bet is how long before we start hearing ominous rumors, from “anonymous witnesses” natch, of rockets, missiles, or fighter jets seen in proximity to the Tu-154 before it crashed.
A bit more seriously, I think it is going to be very interesting to see how the joint investigation of this crash plays out. Dmitry Medvedev has already promised that “the circumstances of this tragedy will be invested in the most thorough way, in close cooperation with the Polish government.” It would be very odd indeed if the tragic death of Poland’s president on a trip to Russia somehow worked to better relations between the two countries, but it is possible (and I stress possible) that this joint investigation, if executed competently, could serve to remove just the slightest bit of the poison from Russian-Polish relations. If during the process of this investigation the Russians are, and are seen to be, open, honest, cooperative, and thorough, then it might demonstrate that they are not quite the dark menace in the East that many, including Lech Kaczynski, have painted them as. Let’s hope for everyone’s sake that things proceed smoothly, that nationalist hotheads are ignored, and that some good can come from this horrible tragedy.
And a few words to would-be flamers and other members of the easily-outraged brigade: Of course this is a tragedy, and I’m not trying to make (too much) light of it. Aircraft crashes are very terrible things, and the untimely deaths of major political leaders are even worse. Nonetheless, I think it’s extremely interesting to see how tragedies like this inevitably bring out the crazy. I truly expect that some people really do think that, somehow, in some fashion, through some nefarious trickery and evil, Vladimr Putin is personally responsible for knocking that plane out of the sky because…well, because he’s a very bad man indeed. The desire to ascribe omnipotence to politicians is a deeply childish and destructive one and should be resisted at all time, especially when it is easy and emotionally satisfying to lay the blame on a single individual.
Post Your Comment
You must be logged in to post a comment
T/S Members
Log in with your True/Slant account.
Thoughts and prayers.
Kudos to Edward Lucas for being sensible (I’m assumming he wrote the good Economist piece).
My bet is that it’ll be the Memorial Foundation, Anna Fotyga, or Andrew W. Kramer.
Meant David Kramer, the Bush administration official, instead of Andrew W. Kramer, of The NY Times.
Of course, assuming it was only a matter of time before Anne blamed Putin for this, I googled her and only you came up.
I have to assume Anne had many friends and acquaintances on that flight and I am genuinely sad for her and everyone who lost someone in the plane crash. When I first learned of it, I felt horrible because I’d just been complaining about Poland. But really, having political differences is completely sep. from wishing anyone harm or grief. The president’s daughter just lost both of her parents. It’s too tragic to comprehend.
I think those woods are cursed.
Some Russian forums have already anticipated such accusations. There are many recurring jokes about Putin\Stalin future guilt, such as:
“Latest archive documents unveil that the trees near Smolensk airport were planted by the direct order of Stalin”
“The crew of the tree received commendations for the fulfillment of the battle plan”
“Major Tree has been breveted Colonel for the succesful military operation”
My first personal thought about this tragedy this morning was: “Oh my, now it begins…”.
An unprecedented shock in the modern history of a European state, some very controversial subjects (Katyn, anti-missile defence, support to Georgia), a consistently anti-Soviet and anti-Russian politician (Kachinsky), the city itself (Smolensk has been a dark place for Poles since 1612) – there are all the aspects for a “Blame Putin” attitude.
Or at least for “the ghost of Stalin”-attitude, which has already been (no kidding) expressed on some of the Russian radiostations this very morning.
P.S. To those who agree that national humor can be used to better understand people. This appeared on a forum I frequently read:
2010: The plane of the President of Poland crashed in Smolensk, 97 died.
2020: The plane of the President of Poland was destroyed mid-air in an explosion, 167 died.
2030: The plane of the President of Poland was destroyed mid-air by Russian MIG-35 jets, 476 died.
2040: The plane of the President of Poland was forced to land in Smolensk. 1524 of the passengers were shot after being tortured by NKVD officers. The plane was burned in the nearby forest.
Etc.
The people who organize and pay for anti-Russian policy all around the world should now read Russian forums.
When one begins to joke about how blatantly will his country be bashed for something< now or in the near future, it means those guys do a TERRIFIC job.
Thanks for passing along those jokes. My own sense of humor is pretty dark and mordant, so I’ve always had a great appreciation for Russian humor.
I’d just disagree with your last point: the fact that people can so swiftly and easily anticipate the hysterical chorus of professional Russophobes shows what a lousy job they are doing. Good propaganda is subtle, flattering, and unpredictable: it slowly guides your thinking in a certain direction without ever really letting you know why. Bad propaganda is like being hit over the head with a hammer. If the facts are (sort of) on your side it always makes sense to use good propaganda as it is so much more effective. If the facts aren’t on your side, it’s time to start driving nails. Since so much of what the Russophobes complain about these days (Russia started the war in Georgia! Russia is “aggressively revanchist!”) is just totally made up, they are forced to engage in the sort of cartoonish hammer wielding so effectively mocked by jokes like “The crew of the tree received commendations for the fulfillment of the battle plan.”
In response to another comment. See in context »Of course, when the propaganda hits an overall objective person who has at least heard of several points of view, it has be subtle and beleivable.
The problem is, when it is the dominant source of information (by TV, radio or mainstream journals) – it becomes “beleiveable” by default.
For example, Katyn. It is a controversial subject with opinions ranging from “Nazi framed Soviets” to “Cruel military crime” to “Outright genocide of Poles”. The Russian Internet is boiling with opinions, each and every with it’s own degree of credibility (mind you, there are documents, statistics and all that stuff – it’s not always about covering up and putting an innocent face, there is some serious analisis there).
How is it reflected on TV? We had a discussion club about Vaida’s “Katyn”, whee some high-ranking film directors (Russian) praised it for dramatic values and historical accuracy. Period.
When there are 10 credible opinions and you show only 1 – that’s a pretty straight-forward propaganda. But it works well.
I for one have defined the single most horrific phrase to hear from a person after any kind of contoversial material: “What, you’re gonna say it wasn’t like this?..” (told with sarcasm, as in “that’s the Truth, and you’re a communist bastard”).
It works.
And it’s terrifying.
P.S. There are people who try to combat it. A Russian publicist Nikolay Starikov runs the Goebbels’ Award that goes not to people, but to publications which contain outright lie which can be easily confronted by documents and statistics. If you’re interested, you may Google him, but his site has been somewhat unstable recently. Also warning: he’s into geopolitics and the Big Game kind of things, so he’s kind of “against” GB\USA government and policies.
In response to another comment. See in context »Based on what happened to President Yuschenko back in 2004, nobody should surprised anymore.
Lets wait to see who benefits from this ordeal….somebody or some group will.
And what exactly happened to him so that “nobody should be surprised anymore”?
In response to another comment. See in context »Yeah mike, what are you referring to? Was this meta-humor, or are you seriously suggesting that this plane crash is comparable to Yushenko’s poisoning? Or the Orange Revolution?
In response to another comment. See in context »Let’s all get really outraged! Let’s show the whole world how important and outraged we are!
If you actually gave a damn about “the poorest of society” you’d recognize that there are few things more detrimental to the health of a country’s citizens than pervasive political turmoil. Thankfully, Poland has a pretty well developed constitution and the transition to a new government is proceeding smoothly. But in most countries a plane crash that wiped out half the political elite would be the harbinger of extreme instability and possibly even open civil conflict. Needless to say, when a state is consumed by anarchy, the poor don’t make out too well.
In response to another comment. See in context »My initial thought on this after coming back to the Internet after a 2-day break: why on earth did the Poles put so many eggs in one basket?
I can’t help but think that putting all your top military people, President, etc, etc, on one plane is just pretty stupid.
Hm, this is a standard way how Russians and Americans think (add Chinese too). Poland is maybe troubled but a Euro country – where life of a baker worth as much as of a president. Nor Euros think in battlefield terms about their governments – digging bunkers, carrying nuclear codes being obsessed with “enemy never sleeps…neither should we”. They live on a different planet where colleagues fly on the same plane on a business trip. Even they are top government officials.
In response to another comment. See in context »Btw Mark, there might be an answer to the question in your post. Does Novodvorskaya count?
http://grani.ru/Events/Disaster/m.176940.html
I personally think that Novodvorskaya counts as “humor”, but it’s to Mark to decide
In response to another comment. See in context »Oh yeah! Novodvorskaya rocks! No Eddy L., no Anna A., no Simon S. doesn’t get close to her )))
Аntibаnny аnd Каrlin u mus shоw аny rеsресt 2 Nоvоdvоrskаyа аs 2 first wоmаn-роlitiс аnd FSВ оffiсеr in sаmе timе. Вy thе wаy shе gоt hаrd undеrсоvеr wоrk.
Ladies and gentlemen!
We have a winner!
Artur Gorski, Polish deputy: “I blame Moscow”
Translated article available on “Inosmi.ru” by the name “Я обвиняю Москву”.
The original web-site is kinda sluggish and the direct link on source doesn’t work.
[...] The tragic plane crash in Smolensk – Mark Adomanis – On Russia … [...]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/poland/7581643/Russia-tried-to-divert-Polish-presidents-flight.html
Artur Gorski also apparently tryed to have Jesus Christ proclaimed King of Poland…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6200539.stm
Richard, you cite a somewhat neutral article. It talks about redirecting the flight to other airport.
Inosmi article comes from Gorski’s interview to “Nasz Dziennik” and it’s much more straightforward: “We don’t trust Russia”, “there was total special services control over the crash site”, “Russian traffic controllers gave incorrect orders and Polish pilots didn’t have the time to react”. He implies that there isn’t much info at the moment, but he is definitely into “blame Russia”-attitude.
In response to another comment. See in context »http://www.naszdziennik.pl/index.php?dat=20100412&typ=tk&id=tk17.txt
Here it is, works now. Automated translation to English is… well, automated, but for me Chrome did an ok job.
In response to another comment. See in context »[...] of more than 20,000 Poles, including thousands of soldiers, by the Soviets during World War Two. Conspiracy theories will unquestionably be alleged by parties within and beyond Poland, and fingers are already being [...]
Mark – prepare to be shocked:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/12/AR2010041201831.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
Brilliant! The Russophobe mob fell quiet because they realised this time their hysterics might have some rather harmful consequences, and not just for the Russians, if the Poles started to think the Kremlin had wiped out their top brass in a Katyn-2 move. I.e. for the first time they demonstrated some degree of responsibility for their words. Out of concern for Poland.