Vladimir Putin isn’t going anywhere, or: Boris Nemtsov is a hack and a moron
Would the world be a better place without Vladimir Putin? Perhaps. I personally think that if Russia were to have totally open and competitive elections tomorrow, the resulting government would not be an bunch of obsequious Western-looking ass kissers (like the gang who led the late and unlamented “Orange Revolution”), but a substantially less open and liberal, and substantially more anti-Western, bunch of nationalists, a group that would make the current gang in the Kremlin appear positively enlightened by comparison. However this (who would replace Putin if elections were held tomorrow??) is a pointless and stupid discussion to have because, as anyone with a passing engagement with reality can see, Putin and the current power structure aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.
It took some serious effort for me to repress my sense of revulsion upon reading the latest claptrap from Time magazine which, distilled down to its most basic formulation, is: “Sure we’ve been predicting the immanent downfall of Vladimir Putin for the past decade…but this time we’re right! Boris Nemtsov told us so!”
Even on its own terms, the article is an absurd farce. Indeed after finishing it I found myself wondering if it was actually some sort of black PR meant to show Westerners what a ridiculous bunch of fools Russia’s liberal “opposition” really is and how, since it is opposed by such a feeble-minded batch of second-rate egotists and charlatans, the Kremlin’s hold on power is completely and entirely secure. Below (and apologies for the size of the quote, I thought it was worth presenting in full) is what seems to be the article’s main point:
The pivotal point came on Jan. 30, when an opposition rally in the western city of Kaliningrad attracted 10,000 people, an incredibly high turnout for Russia’s docile political culture, and likely the biggest protest for at least five years…For the opposition, this presents a great opportunity. Opposition leaders flew down from Moscow to have their turn at the podium during the late January protest. Alongside local activists, they called not only for lower taxes, more jobs and a new governor, but for an end to Putin’s reign. Nemtsov was the most prominent figure to speak. A popular governor of Nizhny Novgorod in the 1990s and a deputy prime minister under President Boris Yeltsin, he took the stage in a bomber jacket and jeans. “Moscow is sucking the money from the regions as if they were its colonies,” he said. “Until we oust this corrupt police state, we will never achieve a thing.” There was a swell of applause, and he finished his speech with a famous quote from Alexander Pushkin, the nation’s greatest poet. “Russia will waken from its slumber,” he shouted. “And on the ruins of despotism, our names shall be inscribed!” The crowd went wild. The government became the enemy.
A few weeks later at his office in a Stalin-era high-rise in Moscow, Nemtsov is still beaming. A new strategy had come out of Kaliningrad, he says, and he seems restless to enact it. “We have to monitor the overall environment very carefully. We have to spot where protests are flaring up, and we have to act on that,” he tells TIME. “At first it will be a mosaic. It will be fragmented…But eventually the whole country will catch on.”
The ultimate goal, Nemtsov says, is to organize a rally ten times the size of Kaliningrad in the center of the capital. And then what? “Well, after that we’ll have elections, and then we’ll see who wins and who loses. But the point is we have to get rid of Putin. He is dangerous,” Nemtsov says. “I think this year is going to be the year of anti-Putin protests.”
Completely eliding the fact that Boris Nemtsov is one of the least accurate political prognosticators in the entire planet, he would give Bill Kristol a real run for his money in a “Who can be wrong the most often?” contest and his prediction that “this year is going to be the year of anti-Putin protests” should cause nothing but calm in the halls of the Kremlin, in what fantastical dreamworld would a march of 100,000 people in the center of Moscow magically force the government to hold elections? And in what alternate reality would these elections, if for whatever reason the Kremlin actually agreed to hold them, magically become open and fair and free of all of the blatant fraud and ballot rigging that have characterized Russian elections for at least the past decade? Through what mechanisms, institutional or otherwise, does Nemtsov think that such a democratic revolution would play out? Would the protesters in Moscow emanate some magical “freedom aura” that would make the entire authoritarian, unwieldy, and corrupt state apparatus function in perfect unison as force for democracy? Or would they wish really hard that the ranks of the bureaucracy, who are largely beholden to Putin and who support him almost without reservation, would sit on their hands for several months while their fate was being decided? What about the police forces, what would happen to them, would they simply wilt in the face of a the shining moral example set by a few thousand teenagers and a bunch of glastnost’ retreads?
As we have seen in Tehran over the past six months, as long as the government remains willing to use force, large crowds of young people gathered in the street do absolutely nothing to force political change. Guns beat slogans, every time. What protest marches are very good at is creating political theater, good TV footage and an endless succession of Pulitzer-nominated photographs, and getting a lot of young people bludgeoned into bloody pulps. They are exceedingly bad at changing the nature of an authoritarian regime. It would be a much more pleasant world if “people power” and morality could always overcome violence. Alas, we do not live in such a world, and anyone who thinks that Putin and his regime would peacefully and quietly melt away after some paltry number of protesters (100,000 people in Moscow, a city of some 10.5 million people is not exactly an impressive figure) stood around in Triumfalnaya Ploshad is a raving lunatic. At the moment, Putin has a base of support in society that absolutely dwarfs the tiny and ill-organized ranks of liberals. Perhaps this will change in the near future, more likely it will not. But what is absolutely obvious to any objective observer is that a few small and scattered protests overwhelmingly centered on local economic issues are not going to overturn the Russian state.
The Time article is an especially silly exercise in day dreaming. Most of the time such wishful thinking is harmless and even enjoyable, but when the subject is a state with which we have to deal constructively in order to manage profoundly difficult international issues (Iran, nuclear proliferation, etc.) it is profoundly irresponsible and dangerous. Even now I can hear the calls emanating from the Weekly Standard’s editorial offices of “Don’t deal with Putin, his people will overthrow him! Any cooperation we offer will merely strengthen the hand of a collapsing regime!’ In fact, this will probably be the headline of Gary Kasparov’s next op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. Regardless of who makes such an argument, it is nonsense. Regardless of what you think of them, Putin and his regime aren’t going anywhere for a very long time. Is this good or bad? It doesn’t matter, it just is. Maybe some day we can all stop acting like children and deal with Russia, and the world, as it is, and not sit around with our heads in the clouds fondly dreaming of a Russia where the only thing preventing a takeover by Western-oriented liberals is moral turpitude of the Kremlin.
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Right again.
You know, there are two real choices for Russia right now: Putinism or Communism. If Putinism is thrown out, then the only other group with the organizational skill and education level to try to run Russia is the Communists. Would America be better off with Communists in control of the future of Western Europe’s oil and gas supply? I think not.
You think the liberals have a chance to bring down Putinism? These far left liberals can’t organize a pot luck supper. I can’t believe the students marching in Moscow don’t realize that they are being USED as tools by the very Communists who want to wrest control away from Putin.
And we Americans had better get a grip on reality — Russian democracy is never going to look like American democracy. We had better be careful what we wish for because the only thing standing between a swath of Islamic fascist Central Asian states the size of the U.S. (including Pakistan, which HAS the BOMB and would be the last domino to fall) is Vladimir Putin. It’s to his credit that he is keeping the 25 million Muslims living on Russia’s southern border from jumping ship and breaking away from Russian control. And anyone who thinks these break-away states would be “democracies” is crazy — these would be controled by Shiite Muslims, they would be Islamic fascist states, and they would align themselves with Iran — and these states would form a blockbuster of Islamic fascism which would also take down Pakistan.
Can we please get rid of the idiots in the State Department/CIA/Mainstream Media who are pushing these ridiculous theories and trying so hard to demonize Putinism. Is he a tough guy? You bet. But he’s much more like Michael Corleone than he will ever be like Hitler.
I don’t think Putin is repressing “Islamic fascism” (to the extent that it exists in the Caucasus and Central Asia) out of altruistic motives. He’s doing it because it’s clearly in Russia’s state interest to prevent fragmentation along ethnic/religious lines.
As for who is demonizing Putin, it’s not the people at State or the CIA, who by and large are pretty realistic in their impressions of Russia, but the people at the White House and, to an even greater degree, Congress.
Dear Mr.Adomanis,I think,you were wrong,calling Putin’s government “a bunch of obsequious Western-looking ass kissers”.I think this “name” is more appropriate to the goverments of Poland,Czech Republic,Baltic States,Romania,other East-European countries and,especially,GEORGIA. There is no more skillful ass-licker in the world,than the Georgian president.
It would indeed be very wrong to call Putin’s government that, which is why I didn’t. I actually used the term about “obseqious Western-looking ass kissers” in reference to a hypothetical Russian government that would arise out of new elections. Read the first paragraph again, I don’t know how I could have been any more clear about this.
In response to another comment. See in context »Dear Mr.Adomanis.
Ваша статья очень хорошая и актуальная, но проблема в том, в статье отражается только одна сторона луны.
В России народ,( на данный момент) не выступает против власти не потому, что он ее так любит, а потому, что не видит хотя бы какой малой альтернативы.
Так бывшие “демократы” : Немцов, Новодворская, Каспаров, Буковский и иже с ними, являются лучшей поддержкой нынешней власти, поскольку у народа они вызывают гораздо большее отврашение, чем нынешняя власть. А потому нынешняя власть их не трогает, всегда дает высказаться.
Любая ссылка на этих “демократов”, как на экспертов, или просто приличных людей (или что-то подобное) в нероссийской прессе, автоматически, для российской читаюшей аудитории, сводит актуальность статьи к нулю.
Walter,
Спасибо вам. Говоря честно я почти полностью с вами согласен – русский народ не так любит Путина но настоящей политической оппозиции нету. Может быть она появляется в ближайшие время, но у меня огромные сомнения.
In response to another comment. See in context »[...] Others have already scrutinized the details of these “scoops,” but what’s the big picture? Into what exciting narrative will the DC expert squad arrange the latest interviews explosion? [...]
[...] Oригинaл публикaции: Vladimir Putin isn’t going anywhere, or: Boris Nemtsov is a hack and a moron [...]
I just want to add that there is not a country in the world where people love 100% the actual government of their country. Even in the USA some people don’t like Obama but that doesn’t mean that they are going to change something in their country. They have to wait the next election to make their choice among all people of the country. A small group of people can’t chance the results of the official election. So I would like to say to people who criticize the actual govermnent of Russia or the USA just to wait your turn during the next election and we will see if you can win.
Thank you very much for this wonderfull article; here I wrote for the russian people.
Я просто хотел ещё дававить что нет в мире страны где народ любил власть на 100%.Таже в США есть люди которые не любят Обама но это не значит что эти люди что то изменять в обществе. Они должны ждать выборы и на выборах мы уведим кто победить. Народ сам выберит кто ему нужен в данный момент во время выборах. Это называется демократия а не хаус. США ждала 8 лет чтобы Буш ушел из власти и потом они выбрали Обама. Так что всем нада ждать выборы. т.е мнение всего народа и не только мнение маленкой группы людей.
Спасиба за статью она очень интересная.
Mark, can you please explain what did you mean exactly by the word “hack” in this case?
I am looking at translation of your article and this particular word (the way it’s translated) doesn’t make much sense to me.
Your article is currently discussed on one of political forums, so some clarification would be much appreciated.
Thanks in advance,
E.
Those interested in reading Mr. Nemtov’s actual work, as opposed to the fairly hysterical and jealous-sounding rhetoric in this post, can do so here:
http://larussophobe.wordpress.com/2010/06/20/another-original-lr-translation-nemtsov-volume-iii-part-i/
and here:
http://larussophobe.wordpress.com/polls/
For the record, the Kremlin has aggressively moved to confiscate Mr. Nemtsov’s work in the manner of the Soviet dictatorship. It’s sad to see this blogger siding with the Kremlin on that score.
You’ve cornered me, Kim: I am jealous of Boris Nemtsov, one of the least effective politicians and most inaccurate prognosticators of the past generation (He publicly proclaimed that 2010 would be the “year of the anti-Putin protest. How’s that working out??). If only I could, like Boris Nemtsov, be in a position of responsibility and authority while my country collapsed and millions of my citizens died prematurely!
Mr. Nemtsov’s actual work is, of course, cheap and hackish propaganda, a great deal of which is transparently false and misleading. I won’t even dream of defending the Kremlin’s confiscation of Mr. Nemstov’s “report” (I think that it’s stupid enough that it is self-refuting) but, logically speaking, the fact that the Kremlin has confiscated (some of) the press run doesn’t “prove” anything. The Kremlin also confiscates a wide variety of neo-nazi and racist literature, does that “prove” that the authors of those tracts are perspicacious and fairminded? No, of course not.
Mr. Nemstov’s work shoudl be analyzed on its own merits and compared with objective reailty. I will admit that I haven’t read the whole report, but the section on demographics is simply shameful: the sort of pseudo-scholarly garbage that you would expect from a bought-and-paid-for Kremlin “think tank” not someone who claims to be a crusader for truth and freedom. I’ll criticize Boris Nemtsov until he stops penning trash whitewashing the travesty that was the 1990’s, and I could care less who else likes or dislikes the man.
In response to another comment. See in context »Well, Mark, what you say is probably very well true but what do you recommend Russian people do instead? Roll over and die? I say its better to have some protest, however ineffective or unrealistic, than simply accepting a horrible, bleak fate. Also, it might be simple for you, the American, to neatly label Russia as “hopeless” and move on, but its not OK for the Russian people. They are the ones who are suffering from Putin and Medvedev’s policies, and have every right to defend their own policies. You have no right to criticize people who actually have the balls to stand for something they believe in. If the world was full of “realistic” cynics like you, we’d all be probably better of dead.