Chris Christie won one for the fat guys
It's over when the fat guy wins. (Image via Wikipedia)
Slate usually asks the question many of us are thinking but are too polite (or busy or lazy) to voice. On October 19, it asked in this well-read piece by Daniel Engber: is Chris Christie “Too Big to Win?”
Turns out, no. So, as pundits around the nation ask what this New Jersey gubernatorial election means for Obama, for Republicans, for the future of the panda, let’s add: what does it mean for fat guys?
Engber pointed out in Slate that
According to Public Policy Polling, 20 percent of undecided voters say they’re less likely to pull the lever for a plus-sized candidate.
But the majority of Americans are themselves plumpy. Some stats indicate fat voters tend to vote Republican:
Despite losing in a landslide, John McCain carried all nine of the fattest states in the union and 16 of the top 20.
New Jersey ranks as one of our nation’s thinnest states — 42nd in obesity, according to CalorieLab. But anyone who’s spent time on the boardwalks down the Jersey shore can tell you we have our share of fatties. Did they all band together to vote for Christie? Maybe.
Let’s face it: in the end, Jon Corzine’s wiry runner’s body couldn’t outrun Christie to the Governor’s mansion. (He tried; check out this ad with a pointed jab at Christie “throwing his weight around” as state attorney general.) Christie won one for the fat guys.
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“Despite losing in a landslide, John McCain carried all nine of the fattest states in the union and 16 of the top 20.”
It is an ecological fallacy to conclude that because the above is true, McCain supporters were more likely to be overweight, and I believe surveys done at the individual level like the GSS have shown there isn’t a difference or much of one between Democrats and Republicans in the overweight department.
Anyway, here is one way the ecological fallacy plays out here:
1. States that are more Republican on average have more African Americans.
2. African Americans are more likely to be overweight and therefore make those states more overweight on average.
3. African Americans overwhelmingly vote Democratic, but the states they are in often go Republican.
4. This fuels, at least in part, the fat states=Republican states equation.
There are other possibilities for an ecological problem to be at work as well. Never good to generalize from the aggregate level to the individual level.
Good point. A note: that was Slate’s conclusion, not mine.
In response to another comment. See in context »