Senator Blanche Lincoln becomes the 60th vote needed to start Senate health care reform debate

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Update: “I have concluded that I believe it is more important that we begin this debate to improve our health care system for all Americans, rather than simply drop the issue and walk away,” says Senator Lincoln.

She added earlier in the speech, reflecting on whether or not her health care vote is related to her re-election, “They simply do not know me very well.” She notes that she will not vote in favor of the proposal that was introduced by Senator Reid, which includes a public option, or to end a filibuster of a bill with a public option when it comes up for an up or down vote.

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With Democrats Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Bill Nelson of Nebraska both saying they’ll let the Democratic health care reform bill advance to a vote, Arkansas’s Blanche Lincoln makes #60, and everyone waits now to hear what move she’ll make. It’s expected to be a yes:

That left Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) as the lone holdout and the would-be 60th vote needed to allow President Barack Obama’s vision of health reform to make its way to the Senate floor after Thanksgiving.

Democrats expect Lincoln to vote yes on the debate – and at this late stage, a no vote would be a devastating blow to Obama’s plans. But she’s been cagey, denying a comment by Sen. Dick Durbin Friday that she’d already told Reid how she’d vote.

via Mary Landrieu a ‘yes,’ all eyes on Blanche Lincoln – Carrie Budoff Brown and Jake Sherman – POLITICO.com.

It’s interesting to see the statements have been made all week threatening this small group of Democratic senators who would let the bill advance to debate. Our Bill Dupray for instance noted that to the Republican political apparatus, a vote to proceed to debate would be hung around the necks of the senators in question as a vote for Obamacare, even if they ultimately voted against the completed bill if it makes it to an up or down vote.

And Senator Lincoln is certainly getting that message from some of her constituents on Twitter, and her likely challenger, Gilbert Baker:

Polling has consistently shown that Blanche Lincoln’s vulnerability is caused by her indecision on healthcare. I made my decision a long time ago. I stand with the people of Arkansas, not the Lincoln-Reid establishment. A vote for cloture is a vote for Gov’t run healthcare.

But honestly, what does Senator Lincoln have to lose here? She is facing a difficult re-election regardless of whether or not she shows up to the Senate today and casts any kind of vote for health care. While a recent poll from Zogby shows that a significant amount of Arkansans say they will switch their votes to Baker if she votes in favor of Obamacare, a poll by Rasmussen in September showed that Baker was leading her by about the same margin (49% to 37% with 8% undecidied). Clearly with the Republican Party owning the south and the wave of anti-incumbency likely in 2010, Lincoln would face a tough re-election without health care on the agenda.

The only solace? She’s murdering everyone else in fundraising. She raised $1.2 million in the third quarter of 2009 according to the good people at The Arkansas Project, giving her more than $4 million on hand. That kind of money will go very far in Arkansas’s cheaper media market, and allow her to invest heavily in get out the vote efforts among the kind of people who will be pleased with her voting to let the health care debate proceed. State Senator Baker, in contrast, is currently sitting on about half a million, leaving him with a lot of catch up to do.