Rudy Giuliani out means David Paterson is up?

Play yourself off, Keyboard Rudy (Getty/Daylife)

The Times’s Danny Hakim broke the news today that former New York City Mayor and failed 2008 Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani does not want to become governor of New York:

It was not clear what prompted the decision, but the prospect of potentially facing Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo, who is quietly planning his own run for governor on the Democratic ticket, may not have appealed to Mr. Giuliani, who suffered a bruising defeat in the 2008 Republican presidential primary. While many political analysts believe Mr. Giuliani would have comfortably beaten Gov. David A. Paterson, he would likely have faced an uphill battle against Mr. Cuomo, one of the most popular politicians in the state.

via Giuliani Is Said to Have Decided Not to Run for Governor – NYTimes.com.

Official announcement to come. That leaves failed Republican Senate candidate Rick Lazio to lead the Republican Party back into the governor’s mansion in Albany.

And let’s face it, that’s not going to go well. Lazio just isn’t going to attract a wealth of support throughout the state. It’s hard to see how he’d cut into voting blocs that will help the Democrats hold onto the governor’s mansion. Giuliani could have done that, in spite of all his potential deficits as a candidate.

I have to wonder if that’s good news for Governor Paterson. The best thing that Attorney General Andrew Cuomo had going was that it appeared he could beat anyone, and Paterson couldn’t beat Giuliani. In an October Quinnipiac poll, in spite of all the governor’s troubles, he was tied with Lazio. So it seems possible that state Democrats may have to ask whether or not they want a costly primary battle between Cuomo and Paterson. It could be a major miscalculation to tell Paterson full speed ahead, or it could prevent a lot of money, time and effort from being spent trying to get a better candidate into a Governor’s mansion that could easily be held onto by New York Democrats for four more years.

This all changes if Giuliani gets into the Senate race against Kristen Gillibrand, who was appointed to fill out Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton’s term. That speculation is out there, although Ben Smith is offering some skepticism in his round-up.

What I’m struggling with is the idea that there’s an upside to Giuliani getting into the Senate race. Here’s the thing: He’s got some evident coattails because he can campaign alongside Lazio. That makes Cuomo a better candidate for Albany because he will cancel out Giuliani’s momentum. And keep in mind that Senator Schumer is also up for re-election and is not expected to face a serious challenge from the state’s Republicans. That means it could be Giuilani dragging the anchor of Lazio against the twin sails of Cuomo and Schumer who will have lighter work tugging Gillibrand along.

I could be wrong, but I’m starting to think 2010, aside from Doug Hoffman possibly litigating the New York 23rd special election into next May, is going to be a staid affair here in the Empire State.

Update: Ben Smith gets an “It’s not true” denial from Maria Comella on the Giuliani for Senate rumor.