Tech and Entertainment Predictions for 2010

As the last in the pair of year-end lists, the following ten items are predictions for technology and entertainment for the coming year – in no particular sorting order.

1.  Comcast Barred From NBC Acquisition [Networks]

Comcast’s bid to purchase the NBC properties from GE will be denied by the federal government, because it provides too much centralized control.  No-one America likes Comcast, besides those that make money from it, and giving them the ability to manipulate markets both online and traditional is a terrible idea.

2.  Hulu Subscription Model [TV Online]

Hulu has risen in the last two years to become the dominant destination for premium online streaming content as the “YouTube of television” – this will likely only continue, since networks seem increasingly inclined to unwall their content.  But due to the agreements with some of these networks, only a certain number of episodes are available at any given time, and it’s likely that a premium subscription model will debut in 2010 to allow access to full content archives.  This would, once and for all, provide the revenue stream that the content providers are so desperately looking for, while placating the audiences that just want to watch the latest episode of a favorite show.

3.  Twitter Loses Money [Failing Startups]

Investors have been dumping money into the questionably structured status update company known as Twitter for the last few years, and they have yet to do anything either noticeable or enterprising.  It’s impossible to determine why investors have continued funneling funds into this black hole, but this behavior is likely to cease in the coming year – there is no infinite funding process to hold up companies that are not profitable.  Twitter may be the apple of many peoples’ eye, but in the end that means nothing if there is no viable revenue stream.

4.  Traditional Media Fades Faster [MSM]

The past year was a troublesome one for traditional media outlets, with newspapers closing, networks scrambling, and productions inciting mass layoffs, all while new outfits appeared online to some very substantial growth and relevance.  TV news stations like CNN chose to focus more on entertainment issues than news or even politics, and they saw a decrease in viewership because of it – newspapers ran into similar problems since their content is becoming increasingly dependent on syndicated stories.  2010 will not alleviate these problems:  newspapers will continue to fail, TV networks will struggle valiantly, and online enterprises (blogs, video networks, etc.) will rise from the ashes – for better or for worse.

5.  Twilight Oversaturation [Fantasies]

Movies, books, incessant devotional commentary, and a forthcoming comicbook series – all for a concept that is, at best, an unfinished series based on half-baked ideas, or, at worst, an intellectual property mashup of prior works.  Twilight has been raved about, hated on, and the focus of arguments for so long that its monetary success is unlikely to continue much longer.  The devoted fans will continue to purchase whatever publishers or studios churn out, but the mainstream’s toleration of this inconceivable fad is wearing thin.

6.  Instant Movie Releases [Movies]

Movie studios are going to be forced to experiment with different delivery mechanisms in order to survive, and Netflix and Hulu are likely to be candidates for the coming year – for an extra monthly fee (similar to Hulu’s premium model seen in #2), users will have streaming access to movies as soon as they’re released in theaters.  This removes some of the worry about movie piracy, however unfounded such fears may be, while allowing moviegoers to support the industry they love in a more on-demand, “me oriented” fashion.

7.  3D Growth [Movies]

There were 10 3D movies released in 2009, and 7 have already been announced for release in 2010 in the variety of formats offered.  Avatar seems to have been the turning point for the viability of 3D delivery for non-gimmicky productions, and so it’s to be expected that the number of films released in this manner will subsequently increase.  While there may not be more films released than in 2009, the quality will likely be greater, setting the tone for a 2011 onslaught.

8.  Percy Jackson’s Failure [Movies]

The success of Harry Potter has spawned numerous copycat books and movies, most of which have been nothing but a poor substitute – the Percy Jackson novels and upcoming movie are no exception.  The book is, essentially, the same plot, character structure, and timing as JK Rowling’s works, except that they’re targeted to a much younger audience, almost to the point of talking down to readers.  The movie appears to be no different, and will no doubt prove to be disappointing to whatever fans the book series has, not to mention moviegoers in general, resulting in a complete halt of any future Harry Potter-copycat productions.

9.  iPhone Collapse / Android Growth [Cellphones]

Apple’s iPhone has been too dominant for far too long in the advanced smartphone market, and Google’s Android operating system has shown great promise.  With its use on an increasing number of handsets, and the overall reaction from users, there is no doubt that the iPhone’s reputation and stronghold will begin to collapse, producing a more competitive environment that will foster innovation and openness.

10.  Prelude to the Year of the E-reader [E-reader]

2009 saw the release of the Nook, new versions of the Kindle, and a historical eclipsing of printed books by e-books on Christmas Day – 2010 will continue the innovation and growth trend within the arena and will likely produce a point of critical mass as the year comes to a close.  The next year will not be the year that the e-reader reaches mainstream popularity and mass saturation, but rather it will be the prelude to 2011’s e-reader dominance.

Kyle can be found on his blog, on Facebook, via email, or on Twitter.