Did Ahmedinejad cheat?

A protest in Tehran, June 13 (Shahram Sharif)

Perhaps it’s only my contrarian nature, but I have to admit to some skepticism about the claims of fraud in Mahmoud Ahmedinejad’s reelection in Iran. No evidence of fraud has been brought forth, only claims by the losing candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi and his allies. And the fact that the western media and blogosphere has so quickly jumped on these allegations reminds me of how, when we’re talking about misdeeds in countries with anti-American governments — Russia and Venezuela come to mind — the burden of proof is so low. Russia’s building a fascist truck? Sure! Hugo Chavez banned Coke Zero because he’s just that crazy? Sounds about right! So should we believe these claims of fraud in Iran?

I just talked with an Iranian expert who didn’t want me to use his name because of the sensitivity of the issue. He said he was remaining agnostic as to the allegations of fraud, having seen no evidence. But he told me there were two crucial things to think about:

1. regardless of whether or not there was fraud, a large percentage of people in Iran now believe there was. Elections in Iran have always been seen as legitimate. “That facade is now cracked,” he said.

2. even more importantly, there appears to be, for the first time since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, a schism in the Iranian revolutionary elite, with the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, siding with Ahmedinejad, and others including Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, siding with Mousavi. This schism took a dramatic turn in the final days of the election campaign, when Ahmedinejad attacked Rafsanjani in one of the presidential debates and called him corrupt. Rafsanjani responded with an open letter to Khamenei asking him to respond and defend the honor of the “pillars of the revolution.” Although Khamenei hasn’t responded publicly, he did meet with Rafsanjani for three hours, after which Rafsanjani said he was satisfied with the result. So my source said it’s not clear whether Rafsanjani is going to come out on the side of Khamenei/Ahmedinejad or back Mousavi and his allegations of fraud.  Rafsanjani has been conspicuously silent since the election results came out, and that what side he took would determine the course of events to come. So watch out for that.

Now, skeptical as I am, there is certainly the strong possibility the election was stolen. I also talked to a journalist here in the U.S. who has worked extensively on Iran, who told me “it is absolutely fraudulent” and that she has an upcoming piece discussing that. I’ll update this when her piece is published. And meanwhile, Juan Cole has a good roundup of a lot of circumstantial evidence suggesting cheating.

There is one particularly compelling bit of circumstantial evidence that the numbers were cooked, courtesy of a pro-Mousavi website, Tehran Bureau:

This suggests that as the official numbers trickled out, the proportion of votes by which Ahmedinejad was beating Mousavi remained almost exactly constant. Which of course never happens in normal circumstances, as one batch of results usually will come in from a red state equivalent, and then the next from a “blue state.” So that looks fishy.

UPDATE: via niacINsight: Stratfor is reporting that Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, head of the Expediency Council, has resigned.

Though unconfirmed, the report is saying that Rafsanjani is resigning from his position as head of the Expediencey Council, NOT his position as the leader of the Assembly of Experts, which has oversight responsibility over the office of the Supreme Leader and would be responsible for naming Ayatollah Khamenei’s successor.

UPDATE 2: Nate Silver is not impressed with that graph.

UPDATE 3: The aforementioned story is out, here. She presents a compelling circumstantial case for cheating, as well as invaluable background as to why it happened.