The $11,000 Question for Sports Writers

The era of online sports media has created increased interaction between writers and readers. Many popular columnists, if not most, have their own mailbag where they answer questions submitted by their readers. These columnists also spend a fair amount of their mailbag space distributing advice based on their so-called “expertise”. Normally it’s innocuous fun with someone whose success is predicated on being an “average joe”, but when the need to play the expert meets NFL gambling lines, trouble ensues.

(language NSFW)

So I told Amil to deposit the $11,000 in my bank account and I proceed to re-open my dormant online gambling account and I bet $11,000 on the Patriots (-10.5). If this turns bad and furthers my life into a deeper mess, I fucking blame you Big Daddy Drew.

Holy shit. HOLY SHIT! I emailed Jon this morning to express my condolences. He did not reply. Either he A) has already hanged himself, or B) is currently purchasing the gun that will be used to kill me. Eleven thousand dollars.

via Is Dick Jauron Dying? – Open mailbag tuesday – Deadspin.

Assuming this is true, I can’t imagine having this weigh on me while making future NFL predictions. Drew is a fantastic writer and seems like a truly decent guy, which is a conclusion drawn from limited virtual interactions with him.  Ultimately Drew or any other writer has no responsiblity over what gamblers do with their money, which I’m fairly confident is the rational thought amongst the population using common sense. But in our overly litigious society, I’m legitimately surprised that nobody has sued a sports writer yet for faulty gambling advice. Especially when said writers make those predictions from a position of authority, regardless of whether the distinction is self-certified or legitmately earned.

But are there actually any experts when it comes to picking NFL games against the spread?

An interesting theory about football gambling experts was presented by the good folks at the Sports Law Blog during the Delaware fight for NFL betting. They pointed out that single game NFL bets may be considered a “legal ‘lottery’ game” if they’re determined by “chance or luck”, as opposed to skill. Their evidence? ‘Expert” Bill Simmons’ sub-.500 record for the 2007 season, in contrast with his wife’s record of more than 50% correct. While Simmons may not be an authoirty per se, it begs a question: how can skill be involved if so-called experts, including Jimmy the Greek, are right only about half the time? Since the post ran on the Sports Law Blog, the NFL has prevented single game wagering, but Delaware now allows parlays on NFL games which certainly breaks recent precedent.

Will Delaware win its fight for single game NFL betting? Will other sports follow suit?