Lies, Damned Lies and NFL Draft Statistics
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Whether you’re a college or pro football fan, the NFL Draft is the most interesting event in sports that doesn’t take place on the field. It’s the only event where the two leagues interact so directly, in an amazing spectacle of potential on display. Not only are the futures of individual players from your favorite Universities determined, the long-term fate of every NFL team is directly linked to their selections. Of course, the most glamorous position in football and perhaps all of sports, the Quarterback will be prominently on display. However, ESPN and other sports outlets have spent the last few weeks seemingly hellbent on highlighting the negative aspects of picking a QB in the 1st Round. The consensus among “experts” is that NFL teams using their first pick in the draft on a signal caller are foolish. Yesterday, Brian Billick even trotted out a statistic that only 14 of 43 first round QB’s in the last 10 years have been successful in the NFL. Not only is the sports’ media data and conclusion misleading, their agenda is a mystery because it only serves to undermine their superstar system.
Being an NFL Quarterback is among the most select fraternity in athletics. Only 30 men are good enough to start and only about half are very good at what they do. One could legitimately argue that there are only about 20 athletes on the planet truly capable of competently playing QB in the NFL. The reason? Quarterback is the single most mentally and physically challenging position in all of sports. You have to process multiple complicated scenarios in seconds while the huge men attempt to injure you. Plus, its nearly impossible to determine whether college success and potential actually translate into professional success. This fact alone is the reason for the increased value for the position and teams’ propensity to take risks in the first round. With that in mind, you could argue the high percentage of signal caller busts is simply a product of the expectations attached to draft position. Since it is the most highly-paid and marketable position, the pressure to succeed often creates additional weight that other draft picks never experience. If Offensive Lineman were the most sought after position, the ratio of success would likely be similar.
The only question is whether the media and the NFL itself has ulterior motives. I can’t help but wonder if this QB smear campaign has anything to do with the current recession. It certainly would be a good way to drive the prices down, although I believe they call that collusion in legal circles.
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Is there any stat to suggest that QBs go bust more often than any other position? I wouldn’t be surprised if in fact it’s the opposite. There’s countless WRs and lineman that get taken in early rounds that are equally disastrous. People put a lot of time and money into their QBs to get something out of them – not true with less vital positions.
Good QBs can’t be found in the first round…..so make sure to watch rounds 2-7 for all the real excitement!
The consensus among “experts” is that NFL teams using their first pick in the draft on a signal caller are foolish.
I think Malcolm Gladwell nailed the problem pretty succinctly in Outliers.
There is no college level corollary to being a QB in the NFL… the game is just so much faster, more intense, and mentally different that the only predictor of who might be a good QB is on field experience in the mix.