Climate Change forecast: peace, harmony, end to war and pettiness

Alien

Back in the 1980s when the US and the USSR had intercontinental missiles pointed at each other, the world seemed uncomfortably close to realizing one of the dumbest imaginable outcomes. One finger pushing one button somewhere would set off a sequence of events that assured total destruction everywhere. It was a game no one could win, and, in retrospect, maybe that’s why no one ever really played.

A common trope among those bemoaning this weird frozen state of affairs, in which absolutely everything was at stake, was, “If only aliens would invade, we’d stop this nonsense.” If we just had a common threat, the thinking went, we’d see our respective grievances as the small potatoes they really were. We’d stop linking the continued existence of civilization to arguments about the relative merits of communism and capitalism.

So when the Berlin Wall came down 20 years ago, there was a collective sigh of relief. We seemed to have transitioned from a politics structured around mutually assured destruction to… whatever we call this. The point is, the “if I can’t have it, I’ll nuke it all” option seems to have been (mostly) taken off the table.

But we got our alien invasion anyway — the threat posed to all by human-induced climate change. And, like it or not, we’re now testing the soundness of the reasoning behind the scenario so many wished for. Will a new kind of threat (climate change) lead to a new kind of cooperation?

At this point, hopes for progress at the upcoming meeting on climate in Copenhagen meeting aren’t exactly high. Part of the problem: As far as alien invasions go, climate change is just not quite sexy or dramatic enough — at least not yet.

And yet, sociology has some encouraging things to say on how an over-arching threat, even rather dull-seeming ones like climate change, can quash inter-group squabbling and quibbling, and lead to greater harmony for all. In other words, in a world of soon-to-be 9 billion people, the threat of climate change may be just what the doctor ordered for lasting peace and prosperity.

A classic study called the Robbers Cave Experiment illustrates this coming-together tendency nicely.

In the 1950s, psychologist Muzafer Sherif took 22 boys from middle class families, all around 12 years old, divided them into two groups, and then, for six days, let them cement their group-ness as they saw fit. Each group spontaneously created its own hierarchical structures. And without prompting, each group named itself: the Rattlers and the Eagles.

Now came phase two. The psychologist overlords arranged various competitions between the groups over the course of 4 to 6 days. They explained that trophies would be awarded according to an accumulated team score. Other prizes, like medals and pocket knives, would go out to members of each group when it won a given competition.

Things got ugly immediately, before the competitions even began. The groups started heckling each other in the dining hall. They launched raids on each others’ cabins. They burned each others’ flags.

And when the Eagles actually won a contest, the Rattlers raided them and stole the prize knives and medals. Food fights then broke out in the dining hall, which threatened to erupt into full-scale riots. Hostilities between the groups had gotten so bad that the psychologists decided to cut phase 2 short.

They began phase 3 — reconciliation — early.

Here’s the part bears on an alien invasion and, by extension, climate change. We now have two groups with deep-seated hatred for each other — a rather nice microcosm of the human condition. What would it take to make them get along? A new type of problem did the trick.

The psychologists presented both groups with new challenges.  They claimed that the water supply for the camp had been vandalized, ruined. No water for anyone. But while looking into the problem, the two groups discovered a full water tank on the property. Only, the faucet, which was clogged by a cloth, didn’t work.

What did they do? Members from both groups worked together to unplug the faucet. And when the water finally flowed, they rejoiced together. A second “superordinate” problem then arose: a movie they could all watch if they helped pay the cost of showing it. The boys solved that one together, too — each group put $3.50 toward the $15.00 total cost, and the camp administration paid the rest.

And, rather miraculously, when they dined in the mess hall, a few shenanigans involving chewing gum aside, the mutual group animosity was gone.

So maybe there’s something good to be said about the climate predicament, a problem on a scale humanity has certainly never faced before. Maybe it’s just the push we need to realize peace, harmony, and a truly global civilization.

By Moises Velasquez-Manoff