Wedge sits firmly atop the Axe Rankings
In case of poor coaching, break glass
Introducing the first addition of the Coaches in the Crosshairs Axe Rankings.
Throughout each sports season we’ll be rating every coach in terms of the likelihood that they don’t make it to next year with their current organization. This is a work in progress, so please offer feedback!
Right now the ratings are determined by comparing each manager’s team’s current record against their (arbitrary) projected record, and then factoring in such details as: Desperation tinkering (are they messing with the lineups/bullpen usage a lot?), Ownership volatility (do the owners have a penchant for short-lived managers?), Managerial Tenure (has the manager earned extra leeway, via success or a lifetime of service?), and then of course My Point (do I, personally, think this manager is more or less likely to get the axe).
Each team is assigned a point value from 1-10 based on their current record, 1 for the bottom three teams in terms of record and 10 for the top three teams. That point total is subtracted from a point total assigned to each team at the beginning of the season, which rated them in terms of how they were expected to perform, again 1-10. Points are then added or subtracted to that total based on the other factors. The higher a manager’s point total, the less likely he is to still be managing that same team next season.
Check out the rankings below. Let me know if you agree or disagree with them and how you think I should tweak the system. Also, some explanation of some of my point allocations are below the image.
Note: “Current Record” reflects team performance through Wednesday.
As you can see, Eric Wedge has more “extra points” factored in than anyone else. The Indians are not just under-performing this year, they are doing so for the second year in a row. The Indians have been an “every other year” team for a while now, but this season could buck that trend. When you consider the managerial tenures of former Indians skippers Mike Hargrove and Charlie Manuel, it is apparent that improvement is a regular expectation in Cleveland.
A.J. Hinch has only been at the Diamondbacks helm for a fortnight, but if he plans on staying there through the start of next season, Arizona is going to have to make major strides in their NL West effort.
In general, managers in the bottom fifteen currently have little to worry about, while skippers in the top fifteen might have some insecurities.
[UPDATED 10:11pm] My brother just pointed out to me that the chart listed Bob Geren as the manager of the “Oakland Mariners.” Consider it fixed.
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Gardenhire? Really? Does he usually work some midseason magic?
I knew I should have addressed the Ron Gardenhire issue in my main post. His was the first name that stuck out to me, as well.
One of the reason’s I didn’t start these rankings earlier in the season is because before the All-Star Break there’s going to be a lot of fluctuation.
The Twins are not nearly as terrible as they have been lately, and I doubt that Gardenhire actually has much to worry about. That said, these rankings are a reflection of each team’s current records. As the season moves forward, I would expect gardenhire to drop down on the list.
In response to another comment. See in context »Make the chart bigger, I read a freaking word of it.
Also, wasn’t it nice of Eric Wedge to allow himself to be at the top of your list, thereby giving you a sharp headline for your first Axe blog.
I’m sure Wedge is more than thrilled to help me so much.
In response to another comment. See in context »It’s not Wedges’ fault that the bullpen has been mutinous this season. The GM brings in a big name closer and he struggles to do his job, last years closer in the making is struggling to do his job, Joe Smith (a centerpiece of an off season trade is hurt). The bullpen is killing the Tribe! I’d be interested in seeing a stat on how many leads the bullpen has blown this year (especially leads of 4+ runs).
The starting pitching is coming around and the offense is often there (not always from who it’s expected from – i.e. Asdrubal). Tied for 7th in runs scored in the AL and and 9th in all of MLB. And although they have a negative run differential, it’s no where close to worst in the majors.
Eric Wedge is safe…his pitching coach should have been replaced about 1 month ago!
I think Girardi is on the chopping block, if he doesn’t make the playoffs for a second straight year he’s gone. I know they’ve been hot lately, but that can’t hold all year.
Jerry Manual is also on the hot seat, if he can’t win that division this year, especially in another late season melt down he’s obviously gone.
But the first coach “axed” may be Freddi Gonzalez. If the Marlins don’t turn it around soon, then what is the manager doing wrong that lost that early season hot streak.
The rankings are not intended to determine who most “deserves” to be fired, only who is at risk of being fired.
Wedge, Girardi and Manuel are certainly all at risk.
When a team underperforms to the degree that Cleveland has, the crosshairs usually fall upon either the manager or GM, but that’s a battle that the manager usually loses.
As for Fredi, the Marlins are certainly in a tailspin. Expect him to be ranked higher this week, but also know that he is helped by just how terrible the Marlins were expected to perform this year.
Your comment is making me think that I should consider recent streaks in determining the ranking.
Bob Melvin was fired after the DBacks went 12-17 to start the season, but can anything really be gauged by 29 games? I think next weeks ratings will include some sort of index related to recent performance.
In response to another comment. See in context »