Everybody panic!

These days, I keep on thinking about a book discussion I went to last summer, at the Center for American Progress. Hear me out. The discussion was hosted by the Center’s president, John Podesta. As you’ll recall, Obama was doing poorly at the time; his momentum seemed to be evaporating, and everyone was having nightmares of another Republican presidency. So the audience Q and A quickly turned into a progressive therapy session. One person after another took the microphone and wailed their version of: “WHY ARE WE DOING SO POORLY? WHY IS BARACK OBAMA GOING TO LOSE?”

Podesta, having none of it, turned red and did his best Vito Corleone impression:

You don’t have to embrace the violence and misogny of that particular scene to get my point: sometimes, progressives need to buck up. One year later, and Barack Obama is, again, not having the best season of his relatively short political career. The lunatic birther movement has attracted some unfortunately prominent names, health care is stalled in the Senate, and the economy is still reeling. I could go on. And so progressives are, once again, in full-blown panic mode. Once again, we seem to be expecting defeat. I can’t tell you how many worried emails I’ve received over the past few weeks, from friends, colleagues, and relatives, explaining why Barack Obama’s presidency is already over, and what a tragedy that is. (I indulged in this kind of thinking myself a few days ago).

But look. The facts are these: Barack Obama is enjoying historically high approval ratings (beating Reagan’s comparable number by two points). The Democrats control both houses of Congress. On some gut level, I assume that even Max Baucus, shitty Senator though he may be, understands that his party’s future success in large part depends on whether they can pass health care. The Cash for Clunkers program is a mess–but only because it’s proven too popular.

In short, while he’s had more bad days than good recently, the big picture is still in the president’s favor. Of course, we now know for sure that he doesn’t fare well in the summer. His cool style seems to melt in the sun. But as Vivaldi once pointed out, there are four seasons. If past results are any indication of future success, I wouldn’t bet against Obama winning the other three.