Arizona is politically and fiscally bankrupt

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For those of you not paying attention to Arizona politics, the state is a mess – both fiscally and politically.  Yes, at one point it was the home of the great Barry Goldwater – a man whose legacy, alas, has all but vanished from contemporary conservative politics.  Now it is the state which has repeatedly elected the civil-liberties quashing Joe Arpaio as the country’s “toughest sheriff” and whose Senators include the hawkish and increasingly irrelevant John McCain, and the ultra-right-wing and rather vapid Jon Kyl.

The libertarian politics so dear to Goldwater have dried up faster than the water supply.

Now, stepping up to challenge John McCain in the coming Republican primaries is prominent Minuteman, Chris Simcox – a guy who believes in limited government only so long as it comes part and parcel with a really big fence – and J.D. Hayworth, a talk show host and tea-partier who has endorsed the birthers.

Arizona may not be as red as Massachusetts is blue, but the chances of a Democratic Scott Brown pulling off a victory over McCain or his challengers is similar to snowfall in Phoenix.  True, Janet Napolitano was a twice-elected and very popular Democratic governor, but she was plucked up by the Obama administration. Furthermore, Napolitano is a uniquely savvy politician (if not such a terrific DHS bureaucrat), and it is doubtful any remaining Arizona Democrats have either her skill or name recognition, and even less likely that any could pull off a Senate victory over McCain or his challengers.

Remaining in the governor’s shoes is the moderate, if uninspiring, Jan Brewer.  She has little of her party’s support, and even less support from the Democrats in what has become an almost comical attempt to square away the state’s faltering budget.  Said budget is positioned firmly in the red at this point, and nobody in the state legislature can agree on how best to cook the books.  The fiscal year beginning in July will usher in spending shortfalls of at least $2.6 billion dollars, as property values and tax revenues continue their downward spiral, and tourism dollars dry up.

Brewer wants a sales tax hike but both Democrats and Republicans oppose such a move.  Republicans want to cut taxes and cut spending, but nobody – including the Republicans – can explain how this would actually work.  (The cut taxes part always seems so much easier to pull of than the cut spending part.  Imagine that!)  And Democrats want to continue spending at unsustainable rates while raising income taxes, even though such a move would almost certainly deepen the recession further.  A sales tax hike coupled with spending cuts is probably the best of the options on the table, but it doesn’t seem likely that Brewer will get her way.  Nor is it exactly clear where the spending should be cut – which has led legislators to propose all sorts of crazy things, like privatizing Arizona prisons or selling and then leasing back the state capitol building.

Unemployment hovers just under the national average at 9% and voters are unhappy.

In other words, things are not looking good for incumbents in Arizona this year.  Jan Brewer is almost certain to be replaced by someone to the right of her – after all, asking for tax hikes is anathema to Republicans these days – and John McCain’s seat is looking about as safe as a trip to Kandahar.  His moderate stance on immigration and on social issues has long been a thorn in his side, but that thorn is looking sharper than ever these days.  Arizona, as red as it already is, is likely to turn a little redder in 2010 and 2012.  And it’s not going Goldwater red either.