What Abu Dhabi’s Looming Power Struggle Means for Dubai

The sudden, tragic death of Abu Dhabi royal Sheikh Ahmed bin Zayed Al Nahayan in a plane crash in Morocco has cast a pall over the UAE in more ways than one. The intensely-private 41-year-old was not nearly as high-profile as his half-brother, UAE president and Abu Dhabi ruler Sheikh Khalifa (as in Burj Khalifa) bin Zayed Al Nayahan, but he was arguably more powerful. As Managing Director of ADIA, Abu Dhabi’s main sovereign wealth fund- the largest in the world- he oversaw an estimated $627 billion in oil-derived government money.

Despite his own reclusiveness, Sheikh Ahmed presided over some very public investments by ADIA in recent years, including stakes in Gatwick Airport, the Chrysler Building and an ill-timed bet on Citigroup (now the subject of a lawsuit). He also reportedly was a driving force behind the fund’s move toward quasi-transparency: after numerous requests from suspicious politicians and investors, ADIA published its first annual review earlier this month.

The loss of such a low-key, progressive government exec could not come at a more sensitive time for Abu Dhabi.  The city-state and its mysterious ruling family has been under an intense spotlight the past few months during its awkward, stilted showdown with debt-laden fellow emirate, Dubai. Though Abu Dhabi did fork over $10 billion and Dubai seems to have worked out a stop-gap deal with creditors, no outside party- that is to say, no one who is not an Al Maktoum or an Al Nahayan- knows what exactly went down. Are relations tense? Fine? Warm and fuzzy? The answer matters to many- Dubai’s creditors (including major banks), small-time investors, other GCC residents- pretty much anyone who would stand to lose if Dubai were to implode. So far, creditors have warmly welcomed Dubai’s proposed repayment plan based largely on their sense that it has Abu Dhabi’s (aka Uncle Money Bags) tacit approval. But no one knows for sure.

The crucial process of filling Sheikh Ahmed’s shoes at ADIA will be similarly murky- though no doubt dramatic for those rare few privy to the political machinations of the Al Nahayan clan’s competing factions:

As ADIA’s managing director, Sheik Ahmed, who was the son of Sheika Mouza, another wife of Sheikh Zayed, held one of the few pillars of the oil-soaked emirate’s economy not dominated by the powerful crown prince and his full brothers. Christopher M. Davidson, senior lecturer at Durham University and author of Abu Dhabi: Oil and Beyond, says that with Sheik Ahmed out of the picture, the crown prince and his brothers are likely to move on ADIA. “Then they will control virtually all of Abu Dhabi’s economy,” he says.

via Sheik Ahmed Body Found; New Power Struggle in Abu Dhabi? – TIME.

Davidson is referring primarily to Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahayan, another ambitious, powerful royal who hit the limelight twice in recent years- first, in September 2008 when he splashed out $300 million for hard-luck UK soccer team Manchester City and again one month later when he fronted Abu Dhabi’s controversial investment in Barclays. Mansour also heads up the emirate’s second-largest sovereign wealth fund, the International Petroleum Investments Co. or IPIC. A dual leadership role at both funds could give an inordinate amount of power to one individual- possibly creating a benign dictatorship- one that resembles Dubai’s imperfect political structure.

Relatively speaking, Sheikh Mansour is a high-flying Emirati. Comfortable in public and open to taking risks, he’s someone, Davidson notes, Dubai feels would look out for their best interests when it comes to loans down the road.

Davidson says “there’s no doubt” that he’s the one member of the al-Nahayan clan that Dubai would like to see take charge. But Sheik Mansour already controls IPIC. Will he be given the reins of both of the emirate’s massive kitties?

In all likelihood, Dubai is betting its bottom dollar the answer will be yes.