America Becomes Pro-Life
An interesting new finding from the Gallup people shows that, for the first time, more Americans now self-identify as “Pro-Life” than they do “Pro-Choice” since the polling organization started asking them the question back in 1995. In fact, in the past year, the percentage of Americans who said they were “Pro-Choice” plummeted from 50% to just 42%, while those declaring themselves “Pro-Life” rose from 44% to 51%:
Implications? Republican ascendancy? Discuss.
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Scary but not surprising, as the gallup article showed we are seeing a hardening among the right and push back is to be expected. I think the real issue here, and one not addressed by the survey is just how important an issue this is to the American electorate. I’m willing to bet that the numbers of people who walk into the voting booth with this issue high on their list of what’s important is probably about the same as those who identify themselves as Republicans or conservatives. I’m also willing to bet that the vast majority of American’s see this issue as settled.
But then wouldn’t that mean that there is a majority of Repubs in this country, or people who identify themselves as conservatives? I think this poll shows that there is a majority of people in this country who are no longer interested in killing its own citizens before they are born in the name of convenience.
I (of course) find this data positive, and really not an indication of any sort of religious push, but rather hopefully a better understanding of the worth of life and the need to protect a vital, though sometimes unseen, population of our country.
Or maybe the vast right wing isn’t just a conspiracy anymore…we’re watching you Brian…
In response to another comment. See in context »Hopefully you know I am kidding Brian.
In response to another comment. See in context »[...] new poll by Gallup shows a stunning reversal in American perceptions on the question of abortion. For the first time [...]
[...] new poll by Gallup shows a stunning reversal in American perceptions on the question of abortion. For the first time [...]
Polling questions that vague and dependent on interpretation are a useless barometer, especially on such a charged and complex issue.
Plus, a sudden and drastic shift in trend immediately calls for a careful comparison to previous survey methodology.
firedmyass,
Actually, the methodology of this poll is pretty sound. They’ve asked the same questions since ‘95, and do make all kinds of distinctions. If you click on the word “Gallup” above, you can go to their site and read all about it.
Also, Pew recently conducted a similar poll, and also found a marked shift on abortion.
Actually, that link supports my problem with the question. The terms “pro-life” and “pro-choice” in themselves offer a false dichotomy. Also, why no “unsure/not applicable” option? The poll’s totals only add up to 93%… where’s the other 7%?
Their companion poll to the one above, asked of the same participants as far as I can tell, shows that 75% (!) of the respondents are in favor of legal abortion under at least some circumstances… that literally makes them “pro-choice,” whether or not they self-identify by that term.
Such a profound disconnect among the same respondents is just more support for my contention that the pro-life/pro-choice question was terrifically vague and poorly constructed.
Also, they say it was sampled from adults (18+) on land-lines and/or cell phones but there is no breakdown of percentages of method of contact. Was it evenly spread, or weighted towards one (which would dramatically effect the age-spread of the respondents)? What about geographic distribution/income/education? Are these variables similar to the previous polls against which this one is being analyzed?
It’s hard to compare apples solely by touch in in a dark room.
In response to another comment. See in context »David, what do YOU make of this data?
GOP Base Rejects Pro-Choice Republicans: “We Would Never Bend On That”
(http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/15/gop-base-rejects-pro-choi_n_204131.html)
David,
Maybe Bristol Palin was more of a role model than I ever could have realized. She chose to have her baby. I’m sure she was terrified to tell her parents, but they were by all appearances, supportive. She’s made some money off of baby pictures, appearances on morning shows, etc. Maybe it glorified teenage pregnancy, but those wouldn’t be the people responding to this poll. I’m a guy and I am pro-choice. It makes the most sense to me.
Women should have the right to choose. I wouldn’t want to grow up without parents that love and wanted me. I believe some women can raise a child alone and want to…whether it is because their biological clock is ticking or they really don’t need or want a relationship.
My concern is there are numerous reasons to have an abortion and I think women should have that as a choice…say if they don’t want to raise their child that came out of rape. There seems to be a lot of unloved children growing up these days. If you accidentally get pregnant and don’t want a kid, do the kid a favor and get the abortion. My remarks are not meant to be inflammatory; they are meant to be pragmatic.
61% of Democrats are pro-choice, if you read the Gallup source material. Aren’t there a lot more Democrats than Republicans at this point in time? That’s one explanation for such a large change in one year. The poll isn’t showing the reality of party affiliation, but does use it as a factor. If you adjusted the results to reflect party breakdown, it should show pro-choice still in the lead. But, polls aren’t my specialty. I leave that to the true intellectuals.
Sandy
More About the Unbearable Lightness of Abortion Polls
(http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/05/more-about-unbearable-lightness-of.html)
David you should check out that 538 link I posted, basically says the same thing I did earlier today.
The only implication is that there is something wrong with the survey. I share many of the reservations about the polling results expressed by firedmyass. [sic] In my mind, the forced polarity of pro-life or pro-choice is no longer a valid question because the frames these terms represent have become muddled to many people. (This is made startingly clear by the 75% in favor of legal abortion in some circumstances, roughly 30% of whom must have responded they were pro-life.) Does anyone know the split between respondents reached by cell phone and those contacted by land-line? That stat alone may account for a significant skew.
There may be one other implication from the survey. If the flawed results are repeated often enough then people will come to believe them and the foundation for a Republican ascendancy will have been laid…
Gallup suggests it’s all Obama blowback. The only conclusion they venture in their poll analysis is this one:
“It is possible that, through his abortion policies, Obama has pushed the public’s understanding of what it means to be “pro-choice” slightly to the left, politically. While Democrats may support that, as they generally support everything Obama is doing as president, it may be driving others in the opposite direction.”
M,
Yeah, pretty silly. All of the movement in the poll was from Republicans, by the way. Also, they sampled an equal number of Republicans and Democrats, even though Republican self-identification now stands at just 21% of the population.
So, is there a shift? Yes. Is it necessarily significant? Maybe not.