President Sarah Palin? [Updated]
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Is it possible? While up here in Canada, Barack Obama’s popularity is still thriving (he bought cookies when he was here!), his poll numbers where it matters (not Canada) are far less impressive. So much so, as the L.A. Times points out, he is in danger of meeting up with Sarah Palin as she rides a fresh wave of popularity after the start of her campaign the release of her book.
From the L.A. Times:
Depending, of course, on which recent set of numbers you peruse and how the questions are phrased, 307 days into his allotted 1,461 the 44th president’s approval rating among Americans has slid to 49% or 48%, showing no popularity bounce from his many happy trips, foreign and domestic.
Riding the wave of immense publicity and symbiotic media interest over her new book, “Going Rogue,” and the accompanying promotional tour, Palin’s favorable ratings are now at 43%, according to ABC. That’s up from 40% in July.
And as Matthew Dowd (former chief strategist for George W. Bush) points out in the WaPo,
Granted, independent voters have significant reservations about her capability to be president, and this would be a hurdle in the general election. But to win the Republican nomination, Palin needs only to get enough support from the base to win early key states. Already, in nearly every poll today, she has a level of support that makes her a viable primary candidate.
And, granted, this is highly speculative talk since it’s only 2009 and we’re not due for another full-fledged campaign circus for almost another three years, but at the moment (taken in the context of society teetering at the end of a celebrity-is-whoever-has-the-best-Mylar-balloon decade) Palin’s popularity is suddenly a bit of a… serious movement? If not a political one, certainly perhaps an emotional one. Only a year removed from a decisive defeat of both her Vice Presidential debate “you betcha”s, and only months from her quitting the only job that would actually qualify her for a shot at the presidency, Palin is um, almost for real. She’s back, only this time with more pep.
But what does that mean, exactly? Who are these people, really, who make up that 40+ percent? It’s a question that I’m sure many Americans are asking, and one that I can assure you many people in the rest of the world are, too. Because, for whatever reason you choose, America matters to us.
I’ll leave with this: a video that I must preface with the reminder to take it in context, due to who released it. Let’s not get into panic mode. It’s by a group called New Left Media (whose ‘About‘ page is “still under construction”):
Update, Nov. 25: Slate has offered some reassurance for those of us a little worried about Palin and Obama’s apparent equal popularity. Citing the same LAT and WaPo reports that I did, Christopher Beam writes,
The problem is, they’re comparing apples to oranges… favorability and job approval aren’t the same thing. A politician’s favorability rating is a general sense of the public’s feeling about him. His job-approval rating is an evaluation of the work he’s doing.
When you compare favorability ratings—apples to apples—Obama still leads Palin by a distance. The latest Gallup poll puts Obama’s favorability 16 points ahead of Palin’s, ABC puts his lead at 18 points, and CNN says it’s 18 points higher… It’s impossible to compare their job-approval numbers because, well, Palin doesn’t have a job.
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Yeah, I don’t know what that video proves other than New Left Media are taking a page from Rick Mercer’s Talking To Americans, but I think it highlights the problem with modern day elections, no matter what camp you’re a part of: the push to increase votes works (sometimes), but doesn’t work to increase voter awareness and understanding. And I am guilty of this too.
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Tweets Tube, colin horgan. colin horgan said: how we *might* end up with a President Palin: http://bit.ly/7ReE79 [...]
Mr. Horgan,
I am sorry but Ms. Palin has not a snowball’s chance in hell of winning the election for President. I will grant you she has a chance, a small chance, of gaining the Republican nomination but she would not even carry Alaska in the general election. This poor woman can hardly string together ten words into a coherent sentence much less lead a nation.
Couric: Have you ever been involved in any negotiations, for example, with the Russians?
Palin: We have trade missions back and forth, we do. It’s very important when you consider even national security issues with Russia. As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where do they go? It’s Alaska. It’s just right over the border. It is from Alaska that we send those out to make sure that an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right there, they are right next to our state.
She has yet to provide a meaningful explanation of why she resigned as governor of Alaska.
The bottom line is that in a few years she will be half forgotten joke. Her personal charisma can only carry her so far, eventually her lack of substance becomes all too apparent. In any event, she is not interested in any job that requires as much work as running for president, much less being president. In 2012 she will probably be hosting a radio talk show or something like that where she will make lots of money and can bask in the glow of her admiring audience.
Yes, I’m not convinced that she’ll ever be sitting in the White House – at least I hope not. The poll numbers are interesting, though, as short-lived as they may turn out to be.
In response to another comment. See in context »Does Huckabee still have his show on FNC? Maybe she can slide into that spot when he hits the campaign trail again…
I am not so certain as some of you that Ms. Palin can not be elected to the Presidency. Americans voted overwhelmingly for Bush, and I am tempted to say that Palin looks like a genius next to him.
In response to another comment. See in context »Hello palavering,
I would note that Mr. Bush did not win a majority of votes in the 2000 election and that he had a very famous name and had at least completed one term as governor of Texas. He had the additional advantage of being relatively unknown when he ran and with a very moderate and non-polarizing image within Texas. Additionally he had considerable clout within the Republican party. In the unlikely event that Ms. Palin did receive the Republican nomination, she would be by then very well known (or largely forgotten), with a very polarizing image, she would not been out of public office for four years after not even completing one term in office. She has zero support within the official Republican power structure, which is why she is getting clobbered in the press. Michael Steele & Co. live in terror of her actually running in 2012 and it is the best thing imaginable for the Democrats.
So Ms. Palin is no George W. Bush (how is that for faint praise).
In response to another comment. See in context »I was not comparing their political experiences; I was comparing their intellectual capacities.
In response to another comment. See in context »