Just Don’t Ask – Repealing ‘Don’t Ask Don’t Tell’ Will Be A Political Catastrophe
Image by Getty Images via @daylife
This morning’s New York Times headlines that Obama has reached a consensus with Congressional Democrats on the repeal of the Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, the Clinton Era policy that allowed gays to serve in the military provided they didn’t act, look, sound, or seem gay. Congress will take up the measure later this week though, as the Times indicates “it [is] not clear whether the deal [has] secured the votes necessary to pass the House and Senate.”
It is entirely possible that the Democratic Party has gone out of its collective mind.
Repealing Don’t Ask Don’t Tell is a worthy goal and an issue on which Obama campaigned; overturning the measure will repay the diligent work of a small but very active element of the Democratic base. By almost any measure, however, this is the worst possible time to undertake such a fight. By taking a stand on Don’t Ask Don’t Tell now, the Democrats are signing up for a beating at the hands of the GOP
The first blow will come this week. If Congress takes up the repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell in the next few days, almost all of the Democratic efforts to build up momentum on the bill will likely be lost. Democrats will be counting on favorable media coverage like today’s New York Times article to help push the bill through committee and onto the chamber floors but if they lack the votes to get the bill passed before Friday, the long weekend will sap their momentum, focus, and energy. By the time Americans start paying attention to the news again on Tuesday morning, 100 hours will have passed and the media and it’s attention deficit disorder will have moved on to another story. At that point, Democrats will face a long and uphill battle on an issue that they fundamentally can not afford to lose.
And there will almost certainly be a battle. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted in February of this year shows Republicans opposed to the repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell by 13 points. Independents (and of course Democrats) favor repeal but Republicans looking to November will likely conclude that it will be a motivated base rather than a broad-based appeal to Independents that will see them through the mid-terms. Consequently, the GOP will likely attempt to force a floor fight on the repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, mimicking the ultimately unsuccessful but nonetheless politically advantageous Republican opposition to Healthcare Reform.
Memorial Day is the unofficial kick-off of the long summer campaigning season. With the primaries behind them, candidates will use the summer to attend parades, shake hands, and generally see and be seen by their constituents in the bright summer sun. Long days and warm nights make these summer months the ideal ones for candidates to present themselves to the voters and conservative candidates will be looking for issues on which to demonstrate their family-values bona fides. Don’t Ask Don’t Tell is just such an issue.
Moreover, as the GOP begins addressing the issue directly and as more and more candidates work it into stump speeches the approval gap will likely narrow. As with healthcare reform, concentrated media coverage and the unsavory nature of Congressional deal-making will mobilize a currently dormant opposition and motivate the Republican base while discouraging Democratic voters who will feel betrayed as lawmakers struggle to piece together a consensus bill that can survive a Senate filibuster.
The result will be a weakened and stripped down version of the already compromised Don’t Ask Don’t Tell repeal that leaves gay rights proponents dissatisfied and provides ammunition for Republican challengers in November.
Military history teaches that those who determine when and where a battle will be fought have a decisive advantage which can be exploited to great effect. At Midway, Agincourt, and Yorktown brilliant commanders used geography and timing to trap and destroy what were often superior enemies yet controlling when and were the battle will occur is not an assurance of victory as Napolean and Pericles could attest… and as President Obama may be about to discover.
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Chris,
The gays are some of the most passionate supporters of the Democratic party and one of the very few groups that is holding them accountable. Obama needs to deliver something, and if he doesn’t deliver it now, then it’s not going to happen. Especially if Republicans take back the house. If Obama wants to get something done, now appears to be his only choice, so let’s drop this far-fetched posturing about the battles of Agincourt and Midway.
I also seriously doubt your misgivings about this moment amount to much. The Republicans already have all the ammo they need. The Fox News base is already up in arms. There is no risk of provoking them since they are already provoked. If anything, repealing DADT will likely send several members of congress into a tizzy of bigotry, which at this point is most likely to help the Dems more than it will hurt them.
Anyway, The base Obama should be worried about is the Democratic base. Obama needs to prove that he can deliver. He needs to prove this not just to the gays, but to every voter who wants to see real change in Washington.
Chris,
The problem with this argument is that it sees the repeal of DADT as nothing more than a move in political chess, rather than an attempt to redress a equal rights issue (this isn’t just a motivating issue for the gay community, but anyone interested in securing equality for America’s citizens).
Also the failure of the Dems to act, after the administration PROMISED to repeal the law (Gibbs answering the question on repeal posed by a YouTube user: “Thadeus, you don’t hear a politician give a one-word answer much. But it’s, ‘Yes.”) could prove more damaging than backtracking for fear of social conservatives.
The recent CBS News/NY Times poll suggests 70% of respondents strongly favor or somewhat favor gay men and lesbians serving in the military, with low levels of concern among servicemen and women.
My feeling is that the tea-party movement is much more energised by government perceived overreach and the billions siphoned from Main St to bail out Wall St than social issues (although that is certainly an undercurrent).
And we may as well face it: the Dems are going to get hammered in November – they may as well attempt to pass as much of their election promises as possible before polling day.
Bobspice
I want to be clear that I’m not making a moral argument here. Personally I’m all for the repeal of DADT. I wish Obama had signed it into law by executive order (he could do that as CiC) on day one of his Presidency. I think that would have been great.
So I’m not saying “it’s too soon.”
I’m saying this – this moment right here – is precisely the worst possible moment for the Democrats, politically, to do this.
On the other hand, I might be wrong. Since writing this I’ve been pointed to some polling by Gallup that suggests that the divide on DADT isn’t nearly as large as Quinnipec makes it out to be.
You might be right on the Tea Party front; though they may also split the GOP’s base which could be another issue altogether.
This article is intended, at the end of the day, as an attempt to look at just the political chess without concern for the moral imperatives involved. Much as a military tactician might look at Rommel’s Africa Campaign without worrying about the fact that Rommel fought for an evil and genocidal regime, this article attempt to examine the political aspects of the DADT issue without dwelling on its social, moral, and ethical components.
In response to another comment. See in context »Chris- I’d certainly agree with your premise were this ten years ago or were they trying to undertake something as controversial as marriage equality. It’s 2010 now and recent polling suggest 78% of American’s support overturning Don’t Ask Don’t Tell. Furthermore, those who are undecided about the issue might be persuaded by the fact this is being undertaken in a slower, more diligent manner than just passing the repeal and integrating the troops immediately.
To top it off, excitement among the Democratic base is waning. This might be the kind of thing that will get them excited to vote in the upcoming election. The policy only applies to a minority of people, to be sure. However I feel a larger number care passionately about the topic and it will certainly be a motivating factor for those who have been otherwise disenchanted by Obama’s slowness to act on other progressive issues.
In response to another comment. See in context »That 78% number comes from Gallup, if I recall correctly. I find the gap between Gallup’s numbers and those quoted in the article concerning; that’s just too large of a gap to explain away. Something’s wrong there.
I don’t agree that the Democratic base is going to be energized by this. Certainly there is a small minority of the Democratic base that will connect with this… but I don’t think gay rights is the rallying cry the Democrats need for 2010. The schism here is that opposing gay rights is something that the GOP has proved it can successfully rally around whereas the championing of gay rights is simply not something the Democrats have shown they can successfully leverage.
Again, remember I’m Monday-morning-quarterbacking this thing; I’m not making moral or ethical judgments.
In response to another comment. See in context »I don’t like repealing DADT. As of now, ANY serviceperson fed up with fighting wars based on lies, continual redeployments, psychological problems, etc., can say, “Colonel, sir, I’m gay. Where’s my ticket home?”
I think there’s more to it than that – the military isn’t wild about letting people out of their commitments – but I take your point.
Personally, I think we need to seriously reconsider how our military works given how hard up for troops we are right now. That shortage of troops is a problem and if we can alleviate that we can do a lot to ensure that the people on the front lines are there because they want to be and because they personally believe in what they’re fighting for.
I’m not disparaging the military’s commitment, but while all our troops will loyally follow legal orders, you just can’t replace the enthusiasm of a personally motivated trooper.
In response to another comment. See in context »There’s no honor in following orders when what you’re ordered to do is terrible, and murdering, raping, torturing, and sodomizing Iraqis and Afghans is terrible, as is droning their wedding celebrations.
In response to another comment. See in context »Yes, I’m sure it’s that easy.
In response to another comment. See in context »You say: “Repealing Don’t Ask Don’t Tell is a worthy goal and an issue on which Obama campaigned; overturning the measure will repay the diligent work of a small but very active element of the Democratic base.”
Overturning DADT won’t “repay” a small and active element of the Democratic base. It will be a significant step in ending discrimination.
Sadly, too many people are making excuses to continue discrimination.
Considering that Democrats have been in control of our government over the past 1.5 years, I’m disappointed that they’ve been spineless at addressing obvious discrimination against the LGBT community. The US constitution guarantees “equal rights” too ALL, not to some. The LGBT community may be the vocal minority that is speaking up against this injustice. But, discrimination in ANY form should not be so quickly minimized or ignored by anyone in this country, especially by our President and Democratic leaders that love to proclaim how fierce they are in being advocates for the LGBT community.
Repealing DADT doesn’t need to be “studied.” Too bad if heterosexuals have a problem with it. Equal rights isn’t about making bigots comfortable.
Again, please remember I’m not making moral judgments here. I’ve tried to remove my own politics from this article as much as possible and that’s a deliberate and intentional step.
If you want to discuss the issue personally and emotionally I’m right there with you.
To draw a (somewhat hyperbolic) parallel — defeating the Nazis was a moral imperative, but that doesn’t mean the D-day invasion needed to happen in 1942.
In response to another comment. See in context »Also, on a “political” note, the Democrats have much more to worry about this November than any half-repeal of DADT. Independents are already furious with Washington because many were hoping for change from Bush. But, the Obama administration and Democrats have scared and angered many by passing a wasteful stimulus package and a healthcare bill than many vocally opposed.
Standing up for equal rights for all means taking political risk. Look at the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Johnson passed that law, knowing that it could cost him (and Democrats) for years to come. But, he took the risk. Extending equal rights to everyone was the right thing to do.
Enough excuses. Equal rights for all.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Rights_Act_of_1964
This change in retoric means nothing and will change NOTHING
(CNN) – Most Americans say people who are openly gay should be allowed to serve in the U.S. military, according to a new national poll.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Tuesday indicates that 78 percent of the public supports allowing openly gay people to serve in the military, with one in five opposed.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/05/25/cnn-poll-nearly-8-in-10-favor-gays-in-the-military/
Thus far, what is being “compromised” just gives further excuse for delay. It’s time for full repeal. Obama has been mostly talk when it comes to LGBT issues.
The LGBT community is, at best, tired that Obama claims to be a “fierce advocate” of the LGBT community.
[...] Chris Thomas is apparently unaware that most Americans and even our most recent veterans don’t have an issue with eliminating Don’t Ask Don’t Tell. For some reason–I guess it’s the ol’ Rove mojo–taking an action supported by more than 70% of Americans is a grave political risk, akin to a major military blunder. [...]
Why do we (Dems) always have to defer to the conservative definitions of religion, service to country, and so on? Most Americans aren’t neocons, and I don’t care how skilled the Repubs are at mobilizing their backward base–that base can’t compete in numbers with the moderate, relatively tolerant majority that we COULD (if we wanted to) get and keep on our side. But to do that, we’d have to move with confidence and faith in our own values. Granted, Obama has given us the worst possible example in that regard, but that’s all the more reason we need to think and act boldly in spite of our scared-of-his-shadow leader. We can calculate, fret, and ruminate until doomsday, or we can take some risks. Yes, we can… make excuses. Yes, we can… rationalize every failure to act and believe. Or we can get our freaking act together and plow ahead with the knowledge that some kind of action, even with the occasional ass-whupping, is way, way better than thinking about what we should do.