Why the recovery won’t mean business as usual

For many small businesses, when the recovery comes, they might not be too happy about it.

That’s basically what Barbara Bagden Roberts said to me during a recent interview. She’s a serial entrepreneur, small business coach, and former Wall Street type who is also supposed to have coined the term “the glass ceiling.”  What she said was, “I tell my clients that when business comes back, it’s not going to be anything like it used to be. And that’s true whether you’re in retail, real estate, or running a jazz club.”

Of course, she’s right.  Among other issues, she’s thinking about:

–Businesses aimed at people over the age of 55 have to readjust their models, since almost everyone in that group has seen his or her savings plummet, never to return.

–Retailers have to address both the effects of social media and the web on buying habits, and the fact that consumers are unlikely to reach into their wallets as in days of yore. An economy fueled almost entirely by consumer purchases is not going to happen for a long time to come.  Retail developers will also feel the effects deeply for years.

–Anyone dependent on government revenues has a nasty future, since sales taxes, property taxes, you name it, are down across the country and it will take quite a lot to replenish the coffers.

–Financial service providers, especially those who offer advice to people on money management, must deal with a loss of trust and a re-evaluation of their basic assumptions.

Then, of course, there are all those ventures affected by changes in technology (like publishing). Those changes don’t have much to do with the downturn, but they’re forces to deal with, too.

It all means that owners of existing small companies need to think now about their business models, whether or not they’re going to be appropriate for the new new economy. The time to think about this stuff is now, the better to have your ducks already in a row when the economy recovers.