New poll paints ugly 2010 picture
Crikey. Check out this poll over at Daily Kos. Particularly, this bit:
But a bigger indicator of peril comes from a new survey question added the DK tracking poll for the first time this week. The poll now includes a rather simple indicator of baseline voter enthusiasm for the year 2010. The question offered to respondents is a simple question about their intentions for 2010:
QUESTION: In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?
The results were, to put it mildly, shocking:
Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting
Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: 56/40
Two in five Democratic voters either consider themselves unlikely to vote at this point in time, or have already made the firm decision to remove themselves from the 2010 electorate pool. Indeed, Democrats were three times more likely to say that they will “definitely not vote” in 2010 than are Republicans.
Two in five. That’s 40 percent of polled Democrats who claim they’re so unenthusiastic about their party’s representatives that they’re unlikely to lumber over to the local elementary school and pull a lever for one of them…next year.
I recently wrote about the Democratic base’s enthusiasm gap, which this poll not only confirms, but also illustrates the damage is much greater than some of us overly optimistic bloggers initially predicted.
The reasons for the lack of base enthusiasm are pretty clear: Democrats haven’t delivered on many of their promises. There’s no climate bill or finalized healthcare bill, and yet Democrats managed to pull off the none too easy feat of pissing off both gays and women with their respective sluggishness on repealing Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, and allowing the Stupak Amendment to slip into the House’s version of the healthcare bill.
People are losing their jobs and their homes, and all the while they see Washington working tirelessly to protect the bonuses of Wall Street executives who helped tank the economy. Credit card and insurance companies continue to exploit the suffering majority. US troops are still occupying Iraq, President Obama has decided to surge in Afghanistan, and the only thing worse than two wars is three wars, which appears to be the direction we’re heading.
Voters wanted change and hope, and all they’ve gotten is more of the same Bush era policies. Who wants to vote to uphold that kind of sick system?
Despite what some village relics argue, President Obama’s election was a liberal mandate. Voters wanted an anti-Bush administration. There was enormous momentum for change in this country, which is why Democrats won overwhelming victories in both houses.
Whenever there’s a dip in the polls like this, your Fred Barnes, or whatever Neo-Con hack can get to a keyboard the quickest, copies and pastes the same “This is a center-right country!!” platitude into another wholly terrible column. However, this poll actually shows Obama is damaging his party — not by being too liberal — but by abandoning his base, those liberals that totally don’t matter because this is (I got your back, Fred-o) a center-right country.
And sure, the Republicans have been behaving like a pack of petulant assholes, but that doesn’t account for the total lack of productivity in Washington as Firedoglake points out.
You can account for some of this by citing the historic obstructionism of the GOP and the major hole in which the Administration found themselves on January 20, 2009. But you can’t account for all of it, and even if you could, it wouldn’t change the basic dynamic – the right has been worked into a frenzy hell-bent on defeating the man they are told is the second coming of Hitler, while the left is waiting for that long-promised “change” they can believe in.
This really isn’t complicated: Democrats just need to do what they were elected to do, and they’ll be fine. If they water down the healthcare bill, and betray the voters, they’ll lose seats in 2010.