Democrats and Republicans should be afraid – very afraid
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As tends to happen in the game of national politics, poll wonks and strategists have been trying to glean some kind of understanding about shifts in attitudes toward the Democratic and Republican parties in the wake of the House healthcare bill’s passage.
Some things can easily be determined by merely observing events (Democrats aren’t happy with the Stupak amendment passing,) while other discussions remain pure speculation (which Dems will lose which seats in 2010, or if sun-kissed Prairie man, John Thune, will run for president.) However, there is clearly an overall message resonating from the public: Democratic and Republican politicians should all be very afraid.
Fivethirtyeight reports that a Gallup poll released yesterday shows the Republicans with a 4-point lead on the House generic ballot — a reversal from October, when the Democrats had maintained a 2-point lead. Additionally, Rasmussen gives the Republicans a 6-point lead in their generic ballot using their likely voter model. Of course, Pew and YouGov have the Democrats leading the Republicans. The understanding Nate Silver, poll guru, takes from this muddle is that Dems are in trouble.
My 30,000-foot view is that between the pressures of the jobs situation and the health care debate, the Democrats are in fairly bad shape.
Pile onto that the Democrats’ success in alienating gays and women with a litany of broken promises and the Great Stupak betrayal, and we get the emergence of the “Don’t Ask, Don’t Give” boycott, the creation of John Aravosis and Joe Sudbay from AmericaBlog.
Aravosis and Sudbay launched the boycott in response to the White House’s lackluster support for gay rights, including the nonexistent pressure from the White House for votes on the Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA), the ongoing mixed signals on the repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell (DADT), and the announcement to gay rights groups that they should not expect the repeal of the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) to even be considered until President Obama’s second term. Aravosis and Sudbay are now calling for a donor boycott of the DNC.
Liberals blogs and bloggers such as Firedoglake, Daily Kos, Dan Savage, and Pam’s House Blend have signed on to DADG in solidarity. I interviewed founder of Firedoglake, Jane Hamsher, by phone yesterday and asked about FDL’s decision to join DADG. “The promises just haven’t been met,” says Hamsher, “and the White House has done everything in their power to make it look like they’re doing something without actually doing anything.”
If the loss of the LGBT and pro-choice activists won’t inspire any tears from Democratic leadership, surely their missing donations will.
But before Republicans start break dancing in the streets, a post over at Open Left indicates they too have cause for concern. Previously, Open Left has documented that 90% of John McCain’s votes came from white voters.
More specifically though, 83% of John McCain’s votes came from white Christian voters. As a proportion of the electorate, we saw whites are declining. But guess what? So are Christians, slowly but steadily. Here’s how that looks:
Not only is their demographic declining, but their demographic is also increasingly voting Democrat, and Open Left illustrates this will all types of helpful graphs. Add in growing wealth disparity, and the fact that “Agnostic” is the fastest growing “religious” identification in America, according to Pew polling, and the future begins to look pretty bleak for Republicans.
So in summary: Democrats are losing touch with their base (and their money,) and the Republican base is dying and/or voting Democrat, and both parties appear to be losing touch with the rest of Americans. It’s almost like America’s leadership is totally disconnected from the people. Huh.
The Democrats and Republicans better reintroduce themselves to their bases, or they should start reinforcing the doors of the Bastille.
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[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by allisonkilkenny, allisonkilkenny. allisonkilkenny said: Allison Kilkenny: Democrats and Republicans should be afraid – very afraid http://bit.ly/3Ga2MF #p2 #politics [...]
Here’s the real deal….. if the congress doesn’t get on the facts soon this whole health care debate will be a joke. Two things I’d like to say. When will the insurance companies stop receiving welfare from The Social Security fund. Did you know that all disability insurance plans REQUIRE that all long and short term disabled persons have to apply for Social Security benefits or they will be dropped from coverage. Then when the disabled apply and get rejected the insurance companies use there subcontracted lawyers to assist these applicants with obtaining Social Security.
Guess what happens next? For there efforts the insurance companies reduce the benefits paid to the disabled person equal to the amount they receive from the Social Security. Why should insurance companies be subsidized like this for billions of dollars from a public fund? Help me to understand why this is an acceptable practice?
Second. What ever happened to all the campaign chatter regarding us all deserving the same coverage that Congress gets? Rebublicans, is that a public plan or government run health care. Explain?
So far it seems that really was just election year lies and chatter. Just fodder to satisfy all those yelling and screaming at the town meetings about how great private insurance is. Those individuals have either never been sick or know of no one that ever has been. Because if they did, they see the things I see and hear about as a health care worker, patient and caregiver of a disabled relative. When is reality going to prevail over the insane, mindless greed that we call American health care.
Ever ask yourself what the percentage of health care professional are in it for the money or are there to actually help someone?
Take the profit out of health care issues
and practice preventive medicine and you’ll get dedicated individuals, that really care, entering into health care and cures will be found faster than the dollars flowing into congress right now that prevent it!
P.S.(I wish it was a real debate) and not an issue about which insurance lobby prevails over our personal health care issues.
I have a suggestion for all elected officials: Once the campaign is over send all the poll casters, campaign managers and workers home. Let them wait for the next election cycle, get a job out of Washington.
Stop campaigning, hire advisers who know how to govern and get on with the people’s business. Ever since Clinton we have been in an endless campaign calculating every move based on focus groups, think tanks, lobbyists and special interests groups that range from Catholic Bishops to Big Business to One World Government conspiracy nut bags.
We never do the right things for the right reasons, we don’t solve problems but do everything to delay enough to get to the next election. Everything has to do with money, squeezing each demographic for the next run.
It is sickening because people die while our leaders diddle and fiddle. Sharpen the pitchforks, folks, both parties are about to see a war from the inside.
Why should anyone care if Thune or Palin are running for President? Why must the media consult political (as in Campaign Operatives) think about policy? They are not in the policy business, they are in the manipulation business.
This country is in a big mess and if any of our current crop of leaders would just take their heads out of their collective asses and look at something other than their egos might notice.
Boy, this hits the nail on the head. We have a bunch of career politicians, who endlessly calculate to preserve their seats, and inevitably betray their constituents in order to keep the corporate donations rolling in to buy another few years — to start the whole process over again.
No wonder nothing gets done.
In response to another comment. See in context »Your readers might be interested in knowing that I have formed a brand-new Centrists Group at Linked In.
Centrist Republicans, Centrist Democrats, and Centrist Independents are all welcome. But Flamers, ranters and ravers, script bots, and clandestine political operatives are not!
We believe that Americans, particularly my own extremely disaffected Baby Boom generation, aged 46-63 in 2009, are moving fast towards the Center, no matter our party affiliation or lack thereof. If you’re interested in what Boomers are thinking right now, please take a look at my popular new series, Baby Boomers-The Angriest Generation. Here’s the latest Index http://wp.me/pxD3J-2a
And if you’re at Linked In, please consider joining the new Centrists Group. I think we’re going to become a source of important information in the months and years ahead. Contact me there for an invitation.
Thank you.
Ellen Brandt, Ph.D.
venerability –
Centrists? You actually think we need more centrists? Seems to me that the centrist crowd (usually center/right) has been in control for most of the past 30+ years. We have a centrist President, and a largely centrist congress in both houses, and yet our problems remain and multiply.
What we need, if we’re going to stay with the pathetic 2 party model, are 2 parties that are FAR apart on nearly all issues. We need candidates who stand for something other than bipartisanship for its own sake. And we need candidates who, once elected, will stand and fight for something other than the “endless campaign,” described perfectly by libtree09.
[...] recently wrote about the Democratic base’s enthusiasm gap, which this poll not only confirms, but also [...]